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Chances of another Falklands War war
Old 01-31-2012, 04:01 PM   #1
davai
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What do people here reckon? Doesn't seem that likely to me unless the Argentines are a glutton for punishment.
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sounds like the business. Is it feasible the Argentines will join up with countries like Iran in exchange for military support, or would this be too risky for them considering what's happening right now in the Persian gulf? What are the motives behind each nation's interest do you think? Does the UK actually give a crap about the Islanders right to self-determination as much as the oil fields recently discovered there?
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Old 01-31-2012, 04:37 PM   #2
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  Originally Posted by davai
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Does the UK actually give a crap about the Islanders right to self-determination as much as the oil fields recently discovered there?

Now that the UK is waving its cock around down there, who knows what demands honor might make.

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Old 01-31-2012, 04:48 PM   #3
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If HMS Dauntless is the best we've got then God help us.

This is her Type 45 sister ship:

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Old 01-31-2012, 07:49 PM   #4
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As I understand it the discovery of oil off the coast of the Falklands may have something to do with the Argentinians' renewed enthusiasm for the place. I doubt anyone - on either side - particularly cares what the Falkland Islanders want. Also, the UK navy is less powerful now than it was twenty years ago, and we have significant military commitments elsewhere. The last thing we need is another bloody war.
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Old 02-01-2012, 02:17 AM   #5
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No-one gives a shit about the folk who live down there
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It's all about rescources, pride, saving face or some other trivial bullshit.

Not that we could actually conduct an island war anymore, as we'd need a fair few carrier based / maritime aircraft to have even a hope of winning.
But we seem to have mysteriously scrapped all those - almost as if someone decided that "we don't want to fight for those islands again, now if only we had a reason we couldn't...."

So any action we do take would require the assistance of somone else, who would likely demand to (eventually) strip the place bare in payment, if not a whole host of other concessions.
Along with driving yet another wedge between UK and France, as the latter supply most of the Argentine military equipment.
Not to mention the whole EF/Rafale thing going on in India at the moment.

If shit does happen down there, it will spill over and cause a ton of mess up here.

The Falklanders want to be "British", but very likely they'll be sold down the river for the "greater good" (aka: a couple of % in someone's back pocket.)
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Old 02-01-2012, 04:06 AM   #6
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The problem was one of the invasion. After that the UK's honor demanded they not simply hand it over since that would have dishonored the men who died. Perhaps enough time has passed to allow negotiations to open. Yet Argentina will not negotiate. They insist on unconditional outright sovereignty. In these situations it is normal to allow the islanders some degree of sovereignty. Whilst they were just sheep farmers and fisherman, nobody cared about the place. It is only the prospect of oil which has started all this.

The islands have never been Argentinian. They were uninhabited rocks. This invalidates historical precedent. They are a long way from the Argentinian coast. About four times the distance Cuba is from the US. If the Falklands are Argentinian, Cuba is American. Thus geographical proximity is not a strong argument. Their population is of British stock, they are English speaking and live by British law. Thus there is no cultural connection. They wish to remain British and thus the self-determination argument is against Argentina.

How then to proceed? One could go with a Hong Kong type solution where they get autonomy under Argentina. Argentina could not care less, so long as it gets the oil revenue. Independence would be one possibility, that would make all the islanders rich whilst extricating the UK. The problem then would be that they could not defend against Argentine aggression. It would be like Iraq invading Kuwait for it's oil. If they promised to supply the US with the oil, that would probably work. Much like Saudi enjoys US protection for it's oil.
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Old 02-01-2012, 07:51 AM   #7
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  Originally Posted by pip
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Along with driving yet another wedge between UK and France, as the latter supply most of the Argentine military equipment.

Interesting i wasn't aware of that. Certainly spices things up a bit. I mentioned Iran because Ahmadinejad has been making friends down in central and south America. Due to what's going on with the threats to block the straight of Hormuz this new oil must be doubly important to us. If Argentina makes the first move it could put the French in a difficult position.

  Originally Posted by thod
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Yet Argentina will not negotiate. They insist on unconditional outright sovereignty.

The UK won't budge either though and it seems like we won't have to as long as the Islanders want to remain British.

 
They are a long way from the Argentinian coast. About four times the distance Cuba is from the US. If the Falklands are Argentinian, Cuba is American. Thus geographical proximity is not a strong argument.

I guess you could say that about many places. The Channel Islands for example, the French don't seem to kick up much of a fuss about those.

 
How then to proceed? One could go with a Hong Kong type solution where they get autonomy under Argentina. Argentina could not care less, so long as it gets the oil revenue. Independence would be one possibility, that would make all the islanders rich whilst extricating the UK. The problem then would be that they could not defend against Argentine aggression. It would be like Iraq invading Kuwait for it's oil. If they promised to supply the US with the oil, that would probably work. Much like Saudi enjoys US protection for it's oil.

Seeing as either isn't likely to happen it's a stalemate unless something drastic happens. The Argentines already have the backing of Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay (although probably not militarily) by banning the ships from docking at their ports.

I suppose we could consider sharing the oil with them....

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Old 05-03-2012, 12:18 PM   #8
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The Falklanders want to be British that should be the end of it, except Argentina can't seem to understand this. Well neither can Iranian state tv


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Old 05-03-2012, 12:50 PM   #9
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  Originally Posted by powerplant
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The Falklanders want to be British that should be the end of it, except Argentina can't seem to understand this. Well neither can Iranian state tv


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The people in Quebec want to be French. You can't always get what ya waant.

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Old 05-03-2012, 01:05 PM   #10
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  Originally Posted by powerplant
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The Falklanders want to be British that should be the end of it, except Argentina can't seem to understand this.

Yeah, if the Brits can't have them, maybe the Argentines shouldn't have S. America. And while we're at it, let's look at getting rid of the Yanks from North America and sending them back to Europe. And if we take it back far enough, ... and i mean really fucking far enough...can we all fit all 7 billion somewhere in mid Africa?

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Old 05-03-2012, 02:39 PM   #11
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  Originally Posted by Autumnleaf
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The people in Quebec want to be French. You can't always get what ya waant.

  Originally Posted by davai
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Yeah, if the Brits can't have them, maybe the Argentines shouldn't have S. America. And while we're at it, let's look at getting rid of the Yanks from North America and sending them back to Europe. And if we take it back far enough, ... and i mean really fucking far enough...can we all fit all 7 billion somewhere in mid Africa?


Fair point, but all of the Faklanders want to be British is it the same for the other countries? The Falklanders are being repeatedly harrassed on a daily basis recently

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Old 05-04-2012, 01:16 AM   #12
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This is one messy situation without a clear answer. Britain has no real claim on the island, as it was a colonial settlement...yet Argentina's claim is effectively "the island is physically closer to us." I'm certainly partial to Argentina, if only because I think Britain's time in the sun is long past...why didn't they fight to keep India or the Middle East?

Diplomatically, we owe Britain one for all their fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, yet at the same time Argentina is a growing ally in South America. So I don't see the US getting involved in this situation, besides token gestures one way or the other.

Another war...why not? Nothing like killing a thousand young men to remind everyone of the importance of a small spec of land. Which country will sacrifice the most lives for a few oil-patches?

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The population of the island is just over 3000. Which makes it a village.
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Old 05-04-2012, 04:52 AM   #13
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I think Britain's time in the sun is long past

Technically advanced, organised, rich with a strong military including nuclear armed subs. A proud nation. The issue is not really about the islands so much as relationships. Britain cannot allow itself to be bullied or be seen to be so bullied. Argentinian military action will be met with force. Britain has no choice in this response. If Britain wants rid of these islands, then it needs a face saving option. Argentina seems to insist on banging it's chest and shouting "We gonna kick yur ass" for the domestic vote. This is not how international diplomacy works.

Since they have just upset Spain by stealing it's oil company assets in Argentina, there would be an EU response. The US would look at the players and almost certainly decide to either side with the EU or stand off. The very last thing the US wants is a divide with the EU which would allow China to step in.

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Old 05-04-2012, 08:40 AM   #14
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  Originally Posted by thod
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Since they have just upset Spain by stealing it's oil company assets in Argentina, there would be an EU response. The US would look at the players and almost certainly decide to either side with the EU or stand off. The very last thing the US wants is a divide with the EU which would allow China to step in.

Yeah, it seems like the south American nations are grouping around this issue. As powerplant mentioned, the Falklander's are being hassled and the price of living has rose dramatically of late due to trade ships being banned from south American ports. The US are more our friends than theirs that's for sure. Chavez for one doesn't like America, and as a group they're siding more with Iran, with arms and oil deals playing a big part. The Argentine's better play this one sensibly or they'll be in big trouble, but how will the neutrals see it? Will they see it fairly or does Argentina have the hand of God on their side like back in '86?

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Old 05-04-2012, 02:31 PM   #15
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Could be the next "Cuba"-type situation? International standoff? Maybe not that severe...
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Old 05-04-2012, 03:06 PM   #16
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I think that Argentina doesn't have a right to use force to take the islands, but I also think that it's not worth shedding blood over them.
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Old 05-04-2012, 03:41 PM   #17
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Argentine olympics video, man training on the falklands. "to train for British soil, we train on Argentine soil"

Grade A agitation right there. Even some Argentinians didn't like it.




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How strong is the Argentine position?
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Old 05-04-2012, 04:04 PM   #18
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  Originally Posted by powerplant
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Argentine olympics video, man training on the falklands. "to train for British soil, we train on Argentine soil"

Was gonna post this tonight, you beat me to it.

Thing is, take oil out of the equation, and i doubt anyone gives a fuck about the islands or the people, including the British. But although it may cost lives and money, I don't think we should roll over and let them take it, and not only because it might make us look weak internationally, mainly for me it just pisses over all of the efforts of our forces in the 80s. I doubt they'd be too happy about that.

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Old 05-04-2012, 06:35 PM   #19
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  Originally Posted by davai
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Was gonna post this tonight, you beat me to it.

Thing is, take oil out of the equation, and i doubt anyone gives a fuck about the islands or the people, including the British. But although it may cost lives and money, I don't think we should roll over and let them take it, and not only because it might make us look weak internationally, mainly for me it just pisses over all of the efforts of our forces in the 80s. I doubt they'd be too happy about that.

Suppose Argentina do invade and hypothetically Britain does nothing and lets them have it, I have a strong feeling that the public outcry would be massive and any government that is running at the time would be severely damaged either at the next election or straight away if enough back benchers revolt.


Fact is these people are British citizens and want to remain so, Argentina need to understand that. The more they push at the Islanders the more they will want to stay British. That should be cause enough for Britain to fight for them.

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Old 05-05-2012, 12:41 AM   #20
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  Originally Posted by davai
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Thing is, take oil out of the equation, and i doubt anyone gives a fuck about the islands or the people, including the British. But although it may cost lives and money, I don't think we should roll over and let them take it, and not only because it might make us look weak internationally, mainly for me it just pisses over all of the efforts of our forces in the 80s. I doubt they'd be too happy about that.

Do you really think the British government still has the cojones to engage in unilateral warfare? The Falklands War was the last independent British military deployment that didn't involve NATO.

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Old 05-05-2012, 03:42 AM   #21
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Which other country has had an independent military deployment since the 80's? None. Although the Arab wars have been largely US led, they were multinational. Britain has been involved in everything including the ones the US stayed out of like Libya. No balls?, they have massive balls. You can expect the conservative UK government to react in the same way US conservatives would. This is exactly the mistake Argentina made last time. It is a question of honor. It does not matter if the bully can beat you up. If you do not punch his face, you will be his bitch.

We have US military men on here. Do they think UK soldiers are crap?
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Old 05-05-2012, 04:10 AM   #22
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  Originally Posted by thod
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Which other country has had an independent military deployment since the 80's? None. Although the Arab wars have been largely US led, they were multinational.

Russia, for starters. The Arab wars have all been US military operations with the rest of NATO dragged along...without the US, they simply wouldn't have happened. And I admitted above that the UK has been one of the strongest and most aggressive allies in these endeavors.

  Originally Posted by thod
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Britain has been involved in everything including the ones the US stayed out of like Libya. No balls?, they have massive balls.

I don't see the UK taking charge and leading the NATO coalition into war anywhere. They're not willing to move without sufficient consensus. There's no international consensus on the Falklands, nor will there be.

  Originally Posted by thod
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You can expect the conservative UK government to react in the same way US conservatives would. This is exactly the mistake Argentina made last time. It is a question of honor. It does not matter if the bully can beat you up. If you do not punch his face, you will be his bitch.

Argentina was up against Margaret Thatcher, a different breed of leader than we currently see in UK politics. Perhaps Cameron has it in him, but I have my doubts.

I'll believe it when I see it.

  Originally Posted by thod
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We have US military men on here. Do they think UK soldiers are crap?

It's not a question of the UK Soldiers, but rather of who holds their leash.

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Old 05-05-2012, 07:04 AM   #23
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  Originally Posted by thod
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We have US military men on here. Do they think UK soldiers are crap?

If they are north of Wales, yes.

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Old 05-05-2012, 07:21 AM   #24
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  Originally Posted by eagleseven
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It's not a question of the UK Soldiers, but rather of who holds their leash.

Doesn't matter, the likely hood of the Argie's invading is close to zero, their military is not equipped for it. But if they did, sure Britain's ready - we didn't send Dauntless down there for no reason. I'd bet our Harriers are still more than capable of dealing with what they've got.

  Originally Posted by Subgenius
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If they are north of Wales, yes.

There's a lot of sheep on the islands, so that'll keep the Welsh preoccupied.

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Old 05-05-2012, 11:41 AM   #25
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  Originally Posted by davai
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Doesn't matter, the likely hood of the Argie's invading is close to zero, their military is not equipped for it. But if they did, sure Britain's ready - we didn't send Dauntless down there for no reason. I'd bet our Harriers are still more than capable of dealing with what they've got.

Ah... About those Harriers.

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