[LadySpock]

	Originally Posted by catzmeow To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	Your generalization implies a 100% divorce rate in subsequent marriages, which is inaccurate. Even though the rate of divorce increases with subsequent divorces, a healthy percentage of people appear to do okay on the second try.

I did not make any generalizations. I shared information based on DATA & here are the citations for the information I shared:


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50% divorce rate for marriages
Marriage rate: 6.8 per 1,000 total population
Divorce rate: 3.4 per 1,000 population


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The divorce rate in America for second marriage is 60%
The divorce rate in America for third marriage is 73%

Pffft.

[catzmeow]

Originally Posted by LadySpock To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

I did not make any generalizations. I shared information based on DATA & here are the citations for the information I shared: To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. 50% divorce rate for marriages Marriage rate: 6.8 per 1,000 total population Divorce rate: 3.4 per 1,000 population To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. The divorce rate in America for second marriage is 60% The divorce rate in America for third marriage is 73% Pffft.

Your quote:

	people who are shitty at choosing spouses do NOT get better with practice

A few thoughts. First, reporting annual census data for the purposes of tracking the total divorce rate is inaccurate. The census reports on the number of divorces annually per capita, and can't be applied to all marriages and divorces to get the divorce rate, because it is reporting only for that one-year period. Rate of divorce occurs over time, and isn't reflected in annual divorces per capita. In other words, in 2009, 6.8% of people got married, and 3.4% of them got divorced, but that doesn't mean that the divorces that occurred in 2009 represent the ending of all marriages in effect in 2009. You're attempting to use one set of data inappropriately. The only way in which to use the census data from a single year is to state that half as many people got divorced as got married. The 6.8 figure reflects not not how many people continued to be married in 2009, but the number of people who initiated a marriage in 2009 per capita. The 6.8 divorces per 1,000 people occurred in the total of marriages, which reflect from 1-60+ years worth of marriages.

Second, you've tried to distill a complicated issue down into something simple and black and white. That's inappropriately generalizing.

Say 1,000 Americans get married.

420 of them will divorce per Census Data from 2007 (the divorce rate is actually only 42% in this era, down from 50+% in the 80s-90s).

If half are men and half are women (i.e., 210 each), 50% of the men (105 men) and 45% of the women (95 men) will remarry (total = 200 of the original 420)

If this 1,000 people is composed of middle class Americans, the divorce rate for a 2nd marriage is only slightly higher than the divorce rate for a first marriage (45% versus 42%).

That means that of the 200 people who remarried, 90 of them will divorce. Correspondingly, 110 did not divorce, and thus, chose better the second time around. That represents a majority of people who are on their second marriage.

Beyond your outdated statistical data and failed math calculations, there are other risk factors in regards to marriage success or failure that are far more predictive than being previously married, including age, income, shared religious devotion, whether the husband helps with household chores, and whether the couple co-habited prior to marriage.

Hope this is helpful.

Data sources:
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[mieu]

	Originally Posted by Fishism To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	I'm honestly not sure that the possibility of that life-altering hell is worth the result of a 50/50 coin toss. Maybe I simply have yet to be adequately "smitten" to the point where marriage would feel natural, a logical next step, and I wouldn't even thing of a possible negative outcome.

Terrible analogy. It's only a coin toss if both parties cannot influence the situation, and if the current 'happiness status' of a marriage is directly based on the result of a random number generator. Life can dump a sack of shit on you, but when you're committed to someone else, it's split between two people instead of one, and can be used as fertilizer to bolster the strength of your relationship for the future. When one party gives up or drives the other to do so is when divorce happens. I would advise not rushing it, and making very sure that you're picking the best possible person, because time will change them (and you), it just doesn't have to be for the worse.

For everyone crowing about the 50% divorce rate, either cite some completely unavoidable reasons why people divorce or try not giving up before you start.

[catzmeow]

	Originally Posted by mieu To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	For everyone crowing about the 50% divorce rate, either cite some completely unavoidable reasons why people divorce or try not giving up before you start.

The divorce rate varies widely based upon a number of key risk factors, though. For couples who marry after age 25, who are middle income or above, where both are educated, where the husband contributes to household chores, where they are religious, and where they do not cohabit, the divorce rate is around 20%. For people who marry before age 25, who are below the middle class in terms of income, who aren't educated, where the husband does not contribute to chores, where they are not religious, and where they cohabit, the divorce rate can be over 70%. For most couples who marry, the divorce rate is somewhere between 20% and 70%, depending on the variables above. Some populations divorce much more frequently than others, so you don't necessarily have a 50/50 shot at divorcing...your likelihood of divorcing is largely determined by how/when you marry.

People who throw out the 50% figure generally don't understand divorce prevalence very well.

[LadySpock]

Originally Posted by catzmeow To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

Your quote: A few thoughts. First, reporting annual census data for the purposes of tracking the total divorce rate is inaccurate. The census reports on the number of divorces annually per capita, and can't be applied to all marriages and divorces to get the divorce rate, because it is reporting only for that one-year period. Rate of divorce occurs over time, and isn't reflected in annual divorces per capita. In other words, in 2009, 6.8% of people got married, and 3.4% of them got divorced, but that doesn't mean that the divorces that occurred in 2009 represent the ending of all marriages in effect in 2009. You're attempting to use one set of data inappropriately. The only way in which to use the census data from a single year is to state that half as many people got divorced as got married. The 6.8 figure reflects not not how many people continued to be married in 2009, but the number of people who initiated a marriage in 2009 per capita. The 6.8 divorces per 1,000 people occurred in the total of marriages, which reflect from 1-60+ years worth of marriages. Second, you've tried to distill a complicated issue down into something simple and black and white. That's inappropriately generalizing. Say 1,000 Americans get married. 420 of them will divorce per Census Data from 2007 (the divorce rate is actually only 42% in this era, down from 50+% in the 80s-90s). If half are men and half are women (i.e., 210 each), 50% of the men (105 men) and 45% of the women (95 men) will remarry (total = 200 of the original 420) If this 1,000 people is composed of middle class Americans, the divorce rate for a 2nd marriage is only slightly higher than the divorce rate for a first marriage (45% versus 42%). That means that of the 200 people who remarried, 90 of them will divorce. Correspondingly, 110 did not divorce, and thus, chose better the second time around. That represents a majority of people who are on their second marriage. Beyond your outdated statistical data and failed math calculations, there are other risk factors in regards to marriage success or failure that are far more predictive than being previously married, including age, income, shared religious devotion, whether the husband helps with household chores, and whether the couple co-habited prior to marriage. Hope this is helpful. Data sources: To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

I skimmed. It wasn't helpful. There's something to be said for brevity.

[BBC]

Originally Posted by catzmeow To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

The divorce rate varies widely based upon a number of key risk factors, though. For couples who marry after age 25, who are middle income or above, where both are educated, where the husband contributes to household chores, where they are religious, and where they do not cohabit, the divorce rate is around 20%. For people who marry before age 25, who are below the middle class in terms of income, who aren't educated, where the husband does not contribute to chores, where they are not religious, and where they cohabit, the divorce rate can be over 70%. For most couples who marry, the divorce rate is somewhere between 20% and 70%, depending on the variables above. Some populations divorce much more frequently than others, so you don't necessarily have a 50/50 shot at divorcing...your likelihood of divorcing is largely determined by how/when you marry. People who throw out the 50% figure generally don't understand divorce prevalence very well.

Yeah but it's an average hence most people are between 20 and 70% hence 50% on average.

---------- Post added 06-19-2012 at 10:11 PM ----------

Only ever marry if you have zero doubts about the person. If you have to ask if they are right, then they aren't.

[curiousgeorge01]

	Originally Posted by LadySpock To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	I skimmed. It wasn't helpful. There's something to be said for brevity.

For the sake of brevity then, she's saying some people DO get better with practice even if the majority do not.

[BBC]

	Originally Posted by curiousgeorge01 To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	For the sake of brevity then, she's saying some people DO get better with practice even if the majority do not.

Yeah, but you've still bombed out and getting better with practice doesn't help the pain and agony that goes with divorce - better to not f**k up in the first place

[intjistp]

You can have agony and pleasure without having married. What's the big deal!-Because it has always been so?

[BBC]

It affords certain legal rights in the uk that make it worthwhile in its own right. Men have no right to see their own children if they aren't married for example

[Espadrille]

My impression of failure the second time around has a good bit to do with having learned that marriage (which I associate strongly with monogamy) is not really the way you want to live, i.e. that particular institution doesn't work for you. Not so much that you picked the wrong person (since we all are different, have flaws, emotions etc.) but that the characteristics of that type of lifestyle inhibit your personal development. In other words, you need to spend time doing other types of things besides "working out" how to live with someone, how to share a lot of things with the same person, figuring out who is going to do the laundry or clean the toilet bowl, ad nauseum.

Like maybe you want to write the world's greatest novel and all that mundane stuff is best left to ...uh let's see... the "little woman"? Ain't it writ somewhere that women work on average 2 full time jobs for every 1 that men work?
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Another example: the highly spiritual person who leaves wife and children to go find God in the (proverbial) desert.

[WoodsWoman]

If you don't want to get hurt move to an island by yourself - become a complete hermit. All relationships end one way or another, be it death, divorce, 'leaving' or what-all. ALL OF THEM. The good ones and the bad ones.

Mine did. He died. It fucking HURTS to the point of insanity to lose someone you care deeply about. Would it have mattered if we hadn't been married? I doubt it. Would the medical establishment allowed me to uphold what I knew were his preferences those last days? Probably not.

That does not negate all the experiences, from wonderful to horrible, that I experienced in those intervening years. I am who I am now because of those experiences.

Would I do it all over again? Yes, beyond any shadow of a doubt. Will I get hurt? Undoubtedly. ----It should be pretty obvious where I think the proverbial pot of gold is buried, so, yes, I'm going to do it again.

[Paul Siraisi]

Coming up on 15 years. It's been good. We're about right for each other, in a strange way, and have grown together.

[catzmeow]

	Originally Posted by BBC To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	Yeah but it's an average hence most people are between 20 and 70% hence 50% on average.

It is an average, but where you fall on the relative scale between 20 and 70 is largely determined by factors within your control.

---------- Post added 06-20-2012 at 08:58 AM ----------

	Originally Posted by curiousgeorge01 To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	For the sake of brevity then, she's saying some people DO get better with practice even if the majority do not.

Actually, it can't even be argued that the majority don't get better, since the divorce rate for 2nd marriages is not above 50% when adjusted to for lifestyle choices.

Some people don't get better at LIVING. In other words, they don't educate themselves (decreases risk of divorce), they don't succeed economically (also increases the risk of divorce), they remarry again at a young age (another risk factor for divorce), they don't help each other in the home (another risk factor for divorce), and they make the mistake of cohabitating before marriage (another risk factor).

They make bad choices in multiple areas of their lives which puts them at greater risk for making a bad marital decision and failing in that marriage.

Other people make good/better choices in life, which increases their odds for making good choices in marriage.

It is inaccurate to say that the majority of people who divorce fail the second time around AT CHOOSING A PARTNER when you adjust for other choices. Choosing a bad partner isn't the reason that most marriages fail. Making bad life choices in general is what predisposes you to the risk of divorce..

[Amotry]

Married for five years, it didn't work out well.

I dislike how it can make ending things with somebody a lot slower, personally. I guess it left a foul taste in my mouth.

[Berserker]

Communication and mutual respect seem to be a good cure for any relationship. If two people are married but end up moving in different directions of their lives, they wouldn't end on a bad note with these two qualities, and if they are together, it seems like a good thing.

[samsmi]

The institution of a successful marriage is something most of us aspire to but having been married once for only 5 years I know its damn hard work. Two factions coming together and trying grow together while growing as individuals is incredibly difficult to master successfully and first time around, few manage it. I have met an incredible man after 12 years alone and that hard work is just beginning again but this time I have hindsight of what went before. I analyzed what went wrong the first time and hopefully I have grown enough as an individual that my focus will be on growing together as a couple. Marriage to me is the beginning of a new adventure with someone who makes me feel whole and safe.

[Cerebrogasmer]

I took my marriage seriously just like I do any other promise so it took me 11 years and a rare treat of listening to ex-husband make out with another woman over the phone to finally decide to walk away with no regrets and armed with a clear conscience. In those 11 years I did everything from adopting to his values to make it work (without even realizing it), to forgiving an infidelity that produced a child, to basically compromising every value I had. Strangely I thought the marriage was great (I mean which couple doesn't argue once in a while?), we had great sex, went along great, he changed for the best after the first cheating (or so I thought), he was generous with me (though I found it strange because he was generally mean with other people)-I couldn't care about his money though because I was earning my own, he was (still is) a great father to our children (though sometimes I think it's for his own feel-good). In short ours was a marriage to die for and I worked even harder to make it better. Then it happened...not sure if it's the woman who called me that early morning through my ex's phone or my ex himself but whoever...it's an experience you don't want to go through. Yet I'm thankful for it because it finally opened my mind. Two years later I'm realizing it was all a hoax. The near perfect marriage admired by both friends and family was only in my mind...and the undiscerning eyes of the friends and relatives. In short I was married to a ghost that my ex carefully crafted for me and the outside world. But not even him could keep up with two personalities for long...

INTJ women, if you can, please keep off ESTPs. Yes my ex is a typical ESTP. (disclaimer-this is just my personal experience with an ESTP).

Do I think marriages are doing bad? Yes and no. Yes, because a big chunk of the marriages that I know have super problems. In fact couples survive together only because they come up with strategies to avoid divorce (separate, beds or bedrooms, joining a swing group, agreeing to have other sex partners etc).

On the other hand, I know of marriages that are doing well (or are they?), plus it can work.

Marriage? By all means go for it...there must be some good marriages out there and yours could be among them. We all can't have the same experiences.

NB-Sorry for the rant. Had to get it out I think.

[Zhen]

depends on the individuals involved
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[kingfish]

Bad marriages are bad.

I like my one a lot. It is and has been for the entirety of its 13 year duration an absolute doddle...and for the 7 year friendship before then. I hear all of the time that you have to work at a good relationship but that doesn't seem right to me. Ours is pretty much effortless.

[Distance]

It's the 'must' and 'need' portions that bother me. Better to want and be free when you don't.

[BruceLemur]

	Originally Posted by BBC To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	Yeah, but you've still bombed out and getting better with practice doesn't help the pain and agony that goes with divorce - better to not f**k up in the first place

Yeah, even if you choose wisely the second time you've still had your kids taken away and having extortionate amounts of your income drained from you. And your kids are growing up with no father and all of the problems that creates.

So it's critical to choose wisely the first time. Marriage is wonderful. It's divorce that sucks.

[sircockburn]

I love my Mr. ISTJ.
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He loves me too. We're that "annoying couple" in public, because we're always fussing over each other.

Humor is a big help. We don't fight per se, we express issues in a sane/humorous way that makes each other lol and get the point.
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[Exelone]

Hell yeah, especially when they fart in bed.

[Calig]

Getting married has gone from "death do part" to "let's try". Empty promises they don't intend to keep. Lack of principles. Lack of integrity. No virtues worth respect.