[jdemo23]

When will China take over the U.S.? It's only a matter of time.

[HAL 9000]

Nothing is merely a matter of time. History can take odd turns.

[ElstonGunn]

"Take over" in what sense? Politically, or do you mean in the same sense that the US took over Britain in the 20th century?

[Thinker]

.....or do you mean dominate economically?

[Causa Mortis]

	Originally Posted by jdemo23 To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	When will China take over the U.S.? It's only a matter of time.

China's likely to have the largest GDP before long. They're pursuing pro-growth policies, the US hasn't done so for a while, they have a gigantic population, and they don't have a political body called "Congress" that behaves as if it had organizational downs syndrome.

China is never going to be a center of innovation and research, so I'm skeptical that its ever going to have a cutting-edge per capita GDP.

[Traverser]

In the long term, I think China is going to be the place where you'd want to invest most of your resources for big gains. In the meantime, China has its own share of problems, particularly with respect to the international banking crisis.

If China beats the U.S. market-wise, I'm not afraid. This doesn't mean we'll be poorer as a result; just that the best exporters will be in the East. We've benefitted from their cheap gadgets for the longest time after all. The question is: will U.S. manufacturers be in any position to compete significantly in in the long-term? My guess is no, not for the next 50 years at least.

[Causa Mortis]

	Originally Posted by Traverser To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	If China beats the U.S. market-wise, I'm not afraid. This doesn't mean we'll be poorer as a result; just that the best exporters will be in the East. We've benefitted from their cheap gadgets for the longest time after all. The question is: will U.S. manufacturers be in any position to compete significantly in in the long-term? My guess is no, not for the next 50 years at least.

China's relative competitiveness is a matter of unit labor costs. Its not going to last forever as wages track productivity pretty closely over significant time horizons.

[Antares]

	Originally Posted by Causa Mortis To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	China's relative competitiveness is a matter of unit labor costs. Its not going to last forever as wages track productivity pretty closely over significant time horizons.

Living costs are rising. Food prices over here have jacked significantly, as my maid reports when shopping for us, and the government is trying to keep it under control. James Fallows was right when he called China a "fragile superpower", in that it is so dependent on other nations, and its situation so perilous. Let living costs rise, you've got social problems. There's also pressure to allow the Yuan to appreciate. Increases wages to cheap labor, corporations move their production elsewhere. Aging population is also a significant strain on societal resources, with future projections of four elderly to one working-age person. Allow for multiple births? That's dangerous too. Overall, I think it's easy to get carried away (not direct at you) and predict some sort of ominous takeover by China. It is now the fastest-changing society in history (from agrarian to industrial in about half a century, and now enroute to service in some big cities), and some things might be slipping. The OP probably doesn't have to worry about any "takeovers". It's not going to suddenly spring up and grab the US by the throat. It can't afford to.

[Urshulgi]

China needs to lose about 700 million of its peasants before it can do anything with the gains it has made over the past fifty years.

[Ray9]

China is massive both in terms of area and population. As the living standard improves and rural sections become aware of modern amenities, the leadership will have its hands full keeping the peace at home. The question might have been better asked: when will China overtake the US? The answer is not in your lifetime. It may also turn out to be a dangerous gamble to install infrastructure in China.

[ElstonGunn]

If you take a long view of history, it's actually somewhat uncommon to see times when China wasn't arguably the most powerful country in the world. Going all the way back to the Xia Dynasty in 2000 BC, Chinese history is essentially a cycle of ruling the world, fighting off outsiders who take advantage of internal conflicts, and then somehow coming out of the mess better than before.

[MrFlaneur]

Originally Posted by Traverser To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

In the long term, I think China is going to be the place where you'd want to invest most of your resources for big gains. In the meantime, China has its own share of problems, particularly with respect to the international banking crisis. If China beats the U.S. market-wise, I'm not afraid. This doesn't mean we'll be poorer as a result; just that the best exporters will be in the East. We've benefitted from their cheap gadgets for the longest time after all. The question is: will U.S. manufacturers be in any position to compete significantly in in the long-term? My guess is no, not for the next 50 years at least.

What happens when China, as an "exporting nation" buys up all of your retailers and service industries?

[Traverser]

	Originally Posted by MrFlaneur To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	What happens when China, as an "exporting nation" buys up all of your retailers and service industries?

As long as they don't buy through fractional-reserve banking, or fiat money, then all is fine. Many people overlook the fact that buying diverts resources to potential competitors. For this reason, no body can literally buy out competition, at least not for long.

China's currency is undergoing similar problems with ours. It's very likely that it too will collapse significantly in the coming years, although probably not as disastrous as the dollar will undergo. It's going to be interesting, especially since China's among the few countries looking into a gold-backed international currency.

[childofprodigy]

	Originally Posted by Traverser To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	China's currency is undergoing similar problems with ours. It's very likely that it too will collapse significantly in the coming years, although probably not as disastrous as the dollar will undergo. It's going to be interesting, especially since China's among the few countries looking into a gold-backed international currency.

Yeah well inflation is really high in China right now....I think this inflation is actually imported from the US....China needed to buy the dollars their manufacturer produce hence they print RMB and drive prices up in China....if they stop buying up the dollars to keep the RMB artificially low, those high spikes in price may end up coming down here

[Causa Mortis]

	Originally Posted by childofprodigy To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	Yeah well inflation is really high in China right now....I think this inflation is actually imported from the US....China needed to buy the dollars their manufacturer produce hence they print RMB and drive prices up in China....if they stop buying up the dollars to keep the RMB artificially low, those high spikes in price may end up coming down here

Nope. If they stop buying dollars then the value of the yuan spikes and their export-oriented growth collapses. They've coupled their monetary policy to our own despite the fact that we're subject to very different points in the business cycle.

[Traverser]

	Originally Posted by Causa Mortis To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	Nope. If they stop buying dollars then the value of the yuan spikes and their export-oriented growth collapses. They've coupled their monetary policy to our own despite the fact that we're subject to very different points in the business cycle.

It really depends. Ditching the dollar now, when the dollar is still the world's reserve currency, would be to China's detriment unless it impliments an alternative and politically accepted reserve system for international banking by the rest of the G20 (hence the attention toward gold), so in this scenario it would actually crash in value and bludgeon its productive capacity in the long run (while its exports temporarily increase). With the escape-route already made, then yes; the yuan would spike far higher, leaving the dollar in ruin and crippling the U.S.'s productive capacity instead. At this point, I don't think the Chinese would mind a temporary decrease in exports as their standard of living rises.

I think that's the play being made right now. Unfortunately, there's probably going to be a lot of internal resistance to this move from within China's own financial system; nobody wants to be left holding the dollars when the SHTF. Just thinking about this boggles my mind sometimes.

[LaoTzu]

I think the traditional idea of Empire and Hegemony are going to go out the window.
There will be big players, and bigger players... but we're entering a new stage in World affairs; where countries and borders will become less and less relevant.
You can see it in the way that the West is purposefully disemboweling their middle class, and how more and more jobs are heading to the East. Its a massive restructuring of Global Economics, meant to level the cost of labour throughout the world.

If anything, the Global Banking Community is going to be running things soon enough.

China... USA.... it doesn't matter....

[childofprodigy]

	Originally Posted by Causa Mortis To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	Nope. If they stop buying dollars then the value of the yuan spikes and their export-oriented growth collapses. They've coupled their monetary policy to our own despite the fact that we're subject to very different points in the business cycle.

Yeah they're probably not gonna do it abruptly, but I'm pretty sure they're smart enough to realize this undesirable dependency.....Sooner or later they'll let the yuan rise at least gradually....but again, if inflation is way too high which one is better...have your purchasing power getting killed by inflation or have some manufacturers go bankrupt...

China's about to transition to the next stage of the development anyway...lots of companies are already moving their manufacturing base to cheaper places like Southeast Asia....and in five to ten more years or so their middle class population should be large enough to have domestic consumption growth rather than selling cheap crap to western countries....when that happens then they can reduce their dependency to the U$A

If I were them I'd use up the dollars to buy financial assets abroad (rather than sitting on treasuries), especially natural resource assets, though that wouldn't solve the printing RMB issue...I think they're actually already doing this to some extent

[Global]

China's been fleeing from the dollar for months now and buying up large quantities of commodities globally. They see the consequences of QE2. 3, 4, .... .

And, China is already the center of technological advances. All the best green tech jobs and centers of expertise are in China except for a few pockets in the Middle-east. That's why all the FDI is flowing East.

Classic Sun Tzu strategy applied to national economics.

When the Yuan spikes, China won't need exports. China's not an open market. They'll be fine as the political decisions have been made to support the national interests including raising the standard of living for the masses.

I'm a lot more worried about the US.

[childofprodigy]

	Originally Posted by Global To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	China's been fleeing from the dollar for months now. They see the consequences of QE2. 3, 4, ....

Yeah that too. If I were China, I'd be pretty pissed about QE2 et al and would think of an exit strategy as soon as possible rather than getting mired in a deeper hole of dependency

[Traverser]

	Originally Posted by LaoTzu To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	If anything, the Global Banking Community is going to be running things soon enough. China... USA.... it doesn't matter....

As opposed to before, when the Global Banking Community was already running things?

[Global]

	Originally Posted by childofprodigy To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	Yeah that too. If I were China, I'd be pretty pissed about QE2 et al and would think of an exit strategy as soon as possible rather than getting mired in a deeper hole of dependency

Well, they don't have to respond any longer to complaints about currency manipulation. And they were given more than enough warning to exit treasuries so they are likely rather happy with this turn of events.

[LaoTzu]

	Originally Posted by Traverser To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
	As opposed to before, when the Global Banking Community was already running things?

Fair enough
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They'll be out in the open at least...

Maybe they'll ask us to call them by Name?

[albi92]

This question reminds me of this article. It shows what it takes to become the sole world super-power. It also show that there are so many things to consider when it comes to being the super-power


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2) What comes to mind is toys from McDicks... hahaha!
7) Aside from a Bruce Lee flick, how many Chinese movies are all the rage in your local theatres?

[chanel]

I'm fascinated to see how the developing urban centers draw in more and more rural populace and if they can sustain their own rising middle class!