US/Iran miniature Cold War

[Polymath20]

US admits drone was spying on Iran (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.)

"It simply fell into their laps," he said - after satellite communication was lost.

Is it possible that Iran spotted the drone and directed some sort of signal jamming at the drone? We already know they have some signal jamming capacity as seen during the 2009 riots.

Could this represent an escalation in the region?

[Urshulgi]

The Israelis and their puppets on capitol hill have been trying to escalate with Iran for years. The public hasn't been falling for it *shockingly* so now they're trying other methods to hint that Iran has some sort of secret capabilities that need to be dealt with now, before they become too powerful.

Leave Iran alone and they'll progress into a natural foil for our two true enemies in the region: Saudi Arabia and Israel.

[Polymath20]

The Israelis and their puppets on capitol hill have been trying to escalate with Iran for years. The public hasn't been falling for it *shockingly* so now they're trying other methods to hint that Iran has some sort of secret capabilities that need to be dealt with now, before they become too powerful.

Leave Iran alone and they'll progress into a natural foil for our two true enemies in the region: Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Not sure where you get your history from... the US-backed regime was thrown out in the 1970's in Iran and replaced by the current regime (which is now more unpopular but also much more violent in controlling its people). UN/USA/NATO created Israel in 1950's, so again, not sure how Israel is an enemy of "us" unless you are speaking from the Palestinian perspective (or Jordan or Persian...)

[GreenSky]

If Iran was able to spot the drone, wouldn't that make stealth technology somewhat obsolete? Coud it be a Trojan? Maybe it has some kind of a flawed technology designed to mislead Iran and its allies. Or maybe it really just fall.
This is one is kind of tricky.

[Bioplasmoid]

It's also possible that Iran actually has a capable electronic warfare division, who managed to decrypt the signal,analyse the digital packets,and then perform the equivalent of a replay attack on the drone from directional ground transmitters but with nonsensical realtime coordinates. This might cause the drones software to assume an internal error, and try to land.

Or a similar process was done upon its GPS signal reception.

At any rate, Iran now has or will have reverse engineered software in its possession that will enable them to interfere with multiple technologies deployed against them in the future.

[Thinker]

It's also possible that Iran actually has a capable electronic warfare division, who managed to decrypt the signal,analyse the digital packets,and then perform the equivalent of a replay attack on the drone from directional ground transmitters but with nonsensical realtime coordinates. This might cause the drones software to assume an internal error, and try to land.

Or a similar process was done upon its GPS signal reception.

At any rate, Iran now has or will have reverse engineered software in its possession that will enable them to interfere with multiple technologies deployed against them in the future.

Yeah....they shouldn't be allowed to protect themselves against foreign spy drones flying in their airspace.

Who do they think they are.... A sovereign state or something?

[GreenSky]

It's also possible that Iran actually has a capable electronic warfare division, who managed to decrypt the signal,analyse the digital packets,and then perform the equivalent of a replay attack on the drone from directional ground transmitters but with nonsensical realtime coordinates. This might cause the drones software to assume an internal error, and try to land.

Or a similar process was done upon its GPS signal reception.

At any rate, Iran now has or will have reverse engineered software in its possession that will enable them to interfere with multiple technologies deployed against them in the future.
Wouldn't they first need to spot the plane? They had to know that it was there.

[Bioplasmoid]

I take it you are being sarcastic Greensky. If not, have a read of this.

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Even if it was possible to eliminate most of the radar reflections via a carbon composite shell, combined with stealth profile there would still be telltale radio communications emitted by the drone. Direction finding of a known signature of drone communications would allow tracking by this means alone.

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[Polymath20]

Wouldn't they first need to spot the plane? They had to know that it was there.

It was referred to as "The Beast of Kandahar" and has had sightings as early as 2007

Here's how Iran likely captured it:

1) Jammed the satellite signal - we know that Iran is capable of this because they jammed satellite signals during the 2009 protests

2) "Spoofed" GPS signals - the drone went into autopilot "return to base" mode when it lost communications. Supposedly, Iran was able to transmit GPS signals in such a manner to convince the drone that it was somewhere else and they guided it to land on their runway.

This story is supported by the fact that the drone is intact. as it would be very difficult to do an in-air capture of something like that. Just look at how difficult midair fueling is

The US was spying on Iran and Iran intercepted the drone with very sophisticated techniques. This represents a very public escalation.

I think they will probably have to figure out how to add a bunch of failsafe mechanisms, such as redundant guidance systems (perhaps a homing beacon or laser communication) and then of course a capture deterrent. My guess is that if the drone lands, but fails to get an encrypted "disarm" command, it could have a self destruct mode.

That lends to the idea of a possible trojan... load up a drone that is "easy" to intercept with a bunch of surveillance equipment and viruses. I assume the Iranians are handling it with kid gloves though, after the stuxnet attack.

[Vulture]

legitimate question: would iran be able to pull off such a feat without DIRECT outside support?

also, to the trojan idea: just having the thing give its location to us after being captured can give us some insight into where their best and brightest engineers hang out and reverse engineer stuff... mark it down for a future attack with viruses or "pewpew booms" and you'd probably do some significant damage to R&D.

[Polymath20]

legitimate question: would iran be able to pull off such a feat without DIRECT outside support?

USA has been leaning on Russia and other countries to stop selling high tech gear to Iran. I think Germany recently announced that they would ban high tech exports to Iran. In terms of technical know-how? I think the locals have the capacity.

also, to the trojan idea: just having the thing give its location to us after being captured can give us some insight into where their best and brightest engineers hang out and reverse engineer stuff... mark it down for a future attack with viruses or "pewpew booms" and you'd probably do some significant damage to R&D.

I presume they kept their satellite jamming on until they had it on the ground and disarmed/switched it off. Unless it has a lo-jack with independent power supply...

Still this whole thing seems too neat and tidy... like the CIA just went "Whoops" but who knows maybe they got overconfident. We've got some sharp people in America so I'm sure they'll figure it out.

[JLaRenegade]

It could be a false flag attack by the US to make an excuse to go on another war to secure more oil and cause more destruction in the middle east. I seriously think the govt is going to attack/invade Iran or Syria it will most likely end up in ww3 because China and Russia said they would defend them.

IMHO opinion it doesn't matter if Iran actually captured it because we should not keep sticking our heads up people's asses. We should not be a hypocrite "promoting" peace (< what a joke) and spying on other countries when if the situation was reversed we would immediately launch an attack.

[Polymath20]

I hadn't considered the false flag possibility...

[benr3600]

cliffs: we dropped that bitch over there

[JLaRenegade]

US is always doing false flags
It's all about the Oil.
watch zeitgeist

[GreenSky]

I take it you are being sarcastic Greensky. If not, have a read of this.

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Even if it was possible to eliminate most of the radar reflections via a carbon composite shell, combined with stealth profile there would still be telltale radio communications emitted by the drone. Direction finding of a known signature of drone communications would allow tracking by this means alone.

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the military is perfectly aware of that, thats why they go on radio silence. They could've easily preprogrammed the path, which they though would be the safest. Maybe Iranians got some intel and figured out the path... who knows.
In my opinion all three options are equally viable
-equipment malfunction
-US gave up the drone on purpose
-Iran was able to capture the drone.

At this point WW3 is extremely unlikely. Nukes spoil all the fun. No country can afford or is capable of waging a large scale land war.

Interesting side note, not sure if this is somehow related
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[benr3600]

I know a guy who develops weapons for the MIC, and also does some pretty lofty IT work for AT&T. His response to Iran's claim?

"The only way to gain access to a Predator is through either a key coded login via the remote truck or via secure terminals with a roving key coded access fob.

In order for any plausible brute force attack on the actual signal it would likely take several powerful computers a few weeks to crack said code. Which by then the UAV would've likely run out of fuel."

Cliffs: they didn't hack into it :)

[Doggzilla]

What I do know is that some forms of GPS are far more hardy than others. There are different signals, and believe me, the difference is massive.
The reason civilian GPS has more than one signal is because the original signal can be interfered with by even small solar storms. I would know, I went flying during one and it made my GPS totally useless. Same thing with new G1000, and it didnt skip a beat.

The problem is that GPS signals are reproducible, you dont need to hack anything, you just start with the same timing as the satellite, then gradually change the timing to make the GPS portray another position.

[GreenSky]

I know a guy who develops weapons for the MIC, and also does some pretty lofty IT work for AT&T. His response to Iran's claim?

"The only way to gain access to a Predator is through either a key coded login via the remote truck or via secure terminals with a roving key coded access fob.

In order for any plausible brute force attack on the actual signal it would likely take several powerful computers a few weeks to crack said code. Which by then the UAV would've likely run out of fuel."

Cliffs: they didn't hack into it :)

There is a difference between gaining access and make it loose communications.

---------- Post added 12-18-2011 at 01:54 PM ----------

haha
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[VF1J]

Do you think this will escalate to a full scale conflict? The big boys have been ramping up their propaganda campaigns, France is calling for even stricter sanctions, Iran seems to be standing firm and Russia has moved their Navy into the area too.

[ischuldt]

It seems pretty idiotic of Iran to be threatening to close the strait of whatever the fuck it was called. They would essentially be daring the US to blow them all out of the water. I guess I don't see what the drone really has to do with anything. <sarcasm>We're spying on Iran. Big shock!</sarcasm>

I agree with the leave Iran alone stuff, just keep an eye on them and make sure we're ready for any stupid thing they try. It sounds to me like they're getting ready to try something stupid though.

It kind of makes me wonder if this isn't some ploy by Iran to distract us, or if they actually think they have a weapon that could allow them to defeat the US Navy.

[VF1J]

It seems pretty idiotic of Iran to be threatening to close the strait of whatever the fuck it was called. They would essentially be daring the US to blow them all out of the water. I guess I don't see what the drone really has to do with anything. <sarcasm>We're spying on Iran. Big shock!</sarcasm>

I agree with the leave Iran alone stuff, just keep an eye on them and make sure we're ready for any stupid thing they try. It sounds to me like they're getting ready to try something stupid though.

It kind of makes me wonder if this isn't some ploy by Iran to distract us, or if they actually think they have a weapon that could allow them to defeat the US Navy.

I'm not claiming to know everything about this subject, but you clearly have no idea.

[silicon212]

I'm not claiming to know everything about this subject, but you clearly have no idea.

Explain.

[larkin]

Not trojan exactly, but there's nothing on that drone that we need to hide. They can tie themselves in knots reverse engineering it and find out - everything they already know. And since they already know it, hardly an escalation, much less worth the money for a false flag. In short, an utter non-story.

[VF1J]

Explain.

I must have interpreted it somewhat differently last night, but I think I was basically addressing his last two sentences, I think it made out that Iran was on the offensive and the US had to stand vigilant in the face of the contemptible enemy.

[Polymath20]

I don't understand how, as leaders of Iran, they can justify actions which continue to isolate their people from the rest of the world. Iran has resources, and if they would play nice with the rest of the world, the sanctions would be lifted and everyone would prosper in the country. There would be more capital flowing in, so those in power would have even more power. Granted, the popular protests seem to indicate that many people do not agree with the leadership there...

[larkin]

I don't understand how, as leaders of Iran, they can justify actions which continue to isolate their people from the rest of the world. Iran has resources, and if they would play nice with the rest of the world, the sanctions would be lifted and everyone would prosper in the country. There would be more capital flowing in, so those in power would have even more power. Granted, the popular protests seem to indicate that many people do not agree with the leadership there...

Not everyone thinks that long-term prosperity and "playing nice" wins them enough political favor to compensate for the lost outrage in the short-term. As I've said elsewhere - outrage is cheaper, quicker, easier to generate, easier to guarantee, and a better short-term motivator. Don't think you can improve your country's lot, much less solve any problems? Point fingers instead - all it requires is a good soundbite and commitment to obstruct everything else.

The parallels to our own House of Representatives should be obvious.

[Only Forward]

I read a book called Licensed to Kill: Hired Guns in the War on Terror, in the first few chapters it was claimed that the US was waging an intense war at the boarder between Iraq and Iran, seems to me the war's been far from cold.

[Polymath20]

I read a book called Licensed to Kill: Hired Guns in the War on Terror, in the first few chapters it was claimed that the US was waging an intense war at the boarder between Iraq and Iran, seems to me the war's been far from cold.

"Cold" simply means "not overt" in my book. It should still meet the criteria.

[Legatus]

If Iran was able to spot the drone, wouldn't that make stealth technology somewhat obsolete? Coud it be a Trojan? Maybe it has some kind of a flawed technology designed to mislead Iran and its allies.

More than likely we just gave them a piece of obsolete tech and monitored where they took it for further study so as to determine where there R&D facilities are. We did that with the Russians in the Cold War quite a bit.


It's also possible that Iran actually has a capable electronic warfare division, who managed to decrypt the signal,analyse the digital packets,and then perform the equivalent of a replay attack on the drone from directional ground transmitters but with nonsensical realtime coordinates

Highly unlikely.


legitimate question: would iran be able to pull off such a feat without DIRECT outside support?


No.


also, to the trojan idea: just having the thing give its location to us after being captured can give us some insight into where their best and brightest engineers hang out and reverse engineer stuff... mark it down for a future attack with viruses or "pewpew booms" and you'd probably do some significant damage to R&D.

Yep.


It could be a false flag attack by the US to make an excuse to go on another war to secure more oil and cause more destruction in the middle east. I seriously think the govt is going to attack/invade Iran or Syria it will most likely end up in ww3 because China and Russia said they would defend them.


What in the hell would China and Russia gain by going to war with Iran against the U.S? China is our biggest trading partner whose economy is dependent on exporting products to the U.S. and Russia's military is in a state of disrepair and is facing the possibility of a very real social revolution at home.


IMHO opinion it doesn't matter if Iran actually captured it because we should not keep sticking our heads up people's asses. We should not be a hypocrite "promoting" peace (< what a joke) and spying on other countries when if the situation was reversed we would immediately launch an attack.

You don't become the top dog by rolling over.

[Polymath20]

More than likely we just gave them a piece of obsolete tech and monitored where they took it for further study so as to determine where there R&D facilities are. We did that with the Russians in the Cold War quite a bit.

It's a small, low-altitude drone. It was called "The Beast of Kandahar" due to sightings of it flying around the mountains. It's been known since 2007, so that's a while for Iran to figure out how to intercept it.

What in the hell would China and Russia gain by going to war with Iran against the U.S? China is our biggest trading partner whose economy is dependent on exporting products to the U.S. and Russia's military is in a state of disrepair and is facing the possibility of a very real social revolution at home.

I've noticed lately that Russia steps in to advocate the most peaceful/least costly position whenever the West does things to agitate Russia's neighbors. I think it stems from the same thing - Russia cannot afford a costly conflict on it's doorstep so it says "Hey back off".

[Urshulgi]

Iran agitating could just be a ploy to drive up oil prices.

Higher oil prices helps Iran and Russia, and hurts Europe and the U.S.

Pretty simple, at the end of the day.

[Polymath20]

Iran agitating could just be a ploy to drive up oil prices.

Higher oil prices helps Iran and Russia, and hurts Europe and the U.S.

Pretty simple, at the end of the day.

But a few factors are already mitigating that and fuel prices are still dropping. I think USA And Friends prepared for this in order to give an oil embargo more teeth.

Gasoline exports from USA were on the rise for most of 2011 and that's scheduled to continue. Higher vehicle efficiency was cited as one driving force for this. Even if the cost of oil goes up, the dropping demand for gasoline will lower prices. Gasoline demand in America dropped from 9 million barrels a day to 8 million during 2011.