More Cheap Oil

[Motor Jax]

someone once brought this topic up, and i thought it was pretty interesting. so many ideas have formulated in my mind about this, but i want to know what you guys (and gals) think...

For two hundred years we enjoyed amazing economic growth, because of the marriage of oil and technology. The industrial age plus the energy to move machines, resulted in a standard of living never imagined by past generations. All industrial economies are dependent on oil, and we are coming to end of cheap oil. That is an end to cheap energy that drives all our machines that gave us an abundance of material wealth and time to indugle our pleasures. Life without energy run machines, and private cars, is life without time for our pleasures, and huge reality slap in the face for many. Now we must ask, just how much can technology do for us, and what will happen to our civilization, and civilizations, around the world, when industrial economies collapse?

What makes us civil?

[PHS Philip]

I doubt we'll collapse, because we have a lot of oil left. We have several decades left to get off oil before we start really running out. Of course, ideally we get off oil faster because oil is very useful for things other than fuel, but if we have to we can keep using it.

[Saint]

What do I think?

How sensationalistic.

[Motor Jax]

lol ^

but there is also the possibility, and that's basically it... what would happen if ___ happened? kinda thing

[kevintr]

I doubt we'll collapse, because we have a lot of oil left. We have several decades left to get off oil before we start really running out. Of course, ideally we get off oil faster because oil is very useful for things other than fuel, but if we have to we can keep using it.

I agree there are alot of untapped sorces of oil, like the oil shale around utah(I think) that we haven't used because there expensive and dirty, but oil's gonna hit $150 a berril and ive herd a little talk about $200. At those prices alot of things are going to make economic sense and ufortunantly the enviromentalists are going to be ignored.

On the plus side people are getting interested in fuel efficant cars and ones that run on alternative energy. Ive also heard mass transit use is growing. So this oil crisis might turn out to be a good thing once we get through it.

[Bioplasmoid]

Well there is a solar system and universe out there full of energy frozen and moving in many different forms...Perhaps the present superpowers + movers and shakers in the global energy industries would be wise to 'open-source' the space technology industry to encourage rapid advancement towards some type of space based energy industry. Ok I realise there are a lot more combined space efforts between nations than ever before in history, but really we have a LONG way to go before we start using space resources effectively in my opinion. Sending probes off here and there to gather data or small numbers of humans to experiment with living for short periods of time on planets, seems like too little too late. We should be encouraging future generations like never before to put their minds to work, at solving the cost/materials problems that stop us from having a true space industry. One that encompasses asteroid mining, space based solar arrays,and systems to harness other types of energy that we will presumably discover throughout the rest of this century.

I think a huge amount of the worlds problems that we currently have, particularly overpopulation,wars,lack of water,lack of food,etc can be solved by using more of the supposedly uninhabitable or cost prohibitive regions of both our planet and solar system, in such a way that we simultaneously use these resources right now, and grow their potential for the future. So therefore we need more Engineers and Scientists, and we need to make such professions and associated hobbies seem more 'cool' and viable for young people (of all ability) around the world...

[Dreamer]

I think we'll get off the oil addiction before a major catastrophe comes around. Already, the performance of the US economy is not as reliant on oil prices as it was once in the past. For one, prices skyrocketing did not send the Western economies into a deep recession like the 1970s.

[SirJac]

I don't think it is possible to avoid it anymore. We cannot possibly start producing at any of the known but off limit oil reserves that we know about before we are already in a steep decline. Economists don't totally grasp the situation that we are headed into and only look at the supply side. From that perspective, the world oil production will likely fall 5% in about 5 years, and thus world oil consumption will drop 5% by simple shortage.

However, top economists tend to ignore the sheer utility of a barrel of oil. The amount of power contained in a barrel of oil is unsurpassed in its density and utility. Oil will continue to skyrocket because most people's reservation price is still significantly higher then its cost and the way people are going to stop consuming is simply being priced out of the market. The world is simply not capable of cutting consumption enough to match the coming decline in production volentarily, so market forces will cut it the hard way.

The Saudis opened up their taps full blast and it didn't put a dent into the price of oil. There isn't enough new projects about to start up to make up for the decline in existing oil fields. Any new major projects won't begin producing for 10+ years and won't do us any good now or in the forseeable future. A worldwide recession in the near future is unavoidable because even if soaring energy costs hit the poor countries the worst, like China or India, our economies are linked so heavily that they will drag everyone else with them. No one is in shape to weather a round two when the markets are still suffering the effects of the credit crunch and housing bubble.

[blueback]

There are an awful lot of resources on this subject.

For example:
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The simple fact is that oil is a finite resource and production is about to go into a decline. Even the Energy Information Agency's (EIA) most optimistic prediction is that the decline in production will start in 2035. Combine that with the fact that it will take 20 years to convert our system to deal with the gradual decline in oil and we are already behind. We have left it too late to avoid all repercussions. The most likely scenario is that the world economy will suffer when the decline finally becomes obvious.

So, you know, sleep well.

[Ool]

The simple fact is that oil is a finite resource and production is about to go into a decline. Even the Energy Information Agency's (EIA) most optimistic prediction is that the decline in production will start in 2035. Combine that with the fact that it will take 20 years to convert our system to deal with the gradual decline in oil and we are already behind. We have left it too late to avoid all repercussions. The most likely scenario is that the world economy will suffer when the decline finally becomes obvious.

I find it funny how they’re all blaming it first on the oil companies, then on speculation, now on tree-hugging Democrats refusing to drill in ANWAR.

While it is true that speculation has doubled the price from what it would be if there weren’t any, I’m not sure that this is actually a bad thing. Because if the world—and particularly Americans—didn’t feel the pinch as badly then they still wouldn’t talk about alternatives and the end that’s about to come.

It’s funny, the oil companies want all those leases on presently protected areas while they don’t even exploit the leases they already have. That’s because they know the crunch is going to be even bigger, and the longer they wait with drilling the more they will get for the remaining crude.

But as much as that is driven by greed and profit, it’s actually not so bad in many other respects. For one thing it will stretch out what is left to last longer. For another it will give people both the time and the incentive to adjust their infrastructure to a situation when crude is going to be really expensive, speculation or no.

What is probably bad is that the same lobbyists who wish to bring the last oil-rich real estate into their employers’ possession, so they can bleed their customers dry not only today but in days to come, would be wise to also stall any kind of legislation that would put America and the world on track for alternative energy. Because if that happens they couldn’t sell what they have left for as much than they could if they kept the country addicted and struggling.

It’s like the gun lobby forever supporting those politicians that oppose defense and social legislation that would make foreign US military intervention harder or the streets at home safer. That would seriously put a dent in the demand for their product, so they will naturally do everything in their power to keep that from happening…

[athenian200]

There's no doubt the economy will suffer, but my big question is, will we be able to eat, will we still have books, and what will happen to the Internet? Will we be able to convert enough to remain at that level, at least?

What about sanitation?

If we can still have those things, I'll be fine. When they're gone, I think I'm going to jump off a cliff or something, because just existing in the physical world isn't good enough a life for me.

[scholarwarrior]

I don't know about collapse. i think we'll definitely see a transformation. There's still lots of oil out there, yes, but now the rest of the world seems to want their fair share too, so that rains on our parade a little. Oil is not going away, but i would be willing to guess that prices will remain high relative to 5+ years ago. The changes are already visible, as the auto industry is transforming (albeit slowly). That is not enough, of course. New technology is being devised to use less energy (computer hardware, lcd displays, etc). California's new solar industry is exploding, proving the market is lucrative, and cheaper and better designs are being discovered every few months seemingly.
Perhaps it will no longer be viable to import goods from all corners of the world due to transport costs, resulting in a rennaisance in manufacturing in our country (and others).
Last bit is speculation, but possible. Collapse may be an exaggeration, but things will change drastically, no doubt. In my lifetime too. I'd wager that's not a bad thing either, as most of these changes will directly benefit the environment as well. I always did like clean air.
yes, we will still need oil. Just not as much or for as many things.

[thod]

Oil is higher, but thats not the main problem which is the price of the dollar. Everyday the dollar becomes more worthless so everything goes up in price in dollar terms. It is because the dollar is such rapid decline that money is fleeing and heading into any hard asset around pushing the prices up.

[blueback]

Yeah. . .everyone seems to be distracted by the price of oil.

The price isn't important, it is a side effect. The thing to look at is how much new oil is discovered and how much can be produced. There is a 10 year lag between discovering a field and beginning production on it. If you look at the numbers you can see that the oil companies are not discovering enough new sources of oil to produce enough to meet demand. Now, why would that be?

Well, the simplest explanation is that there is less profit in it for them. If anyone would know how much oil is left it would be the people who depend on it for their business, and they aren't putting money into exploration. I think that they know that the oil that is left to discover is too expensive to produce so even at the super-high prices in 10 years it won't be profitable to drill for it.

Pay attention to the actual oil itself, not to the artificial dollar value attached to it.

[md21017md]

Have to agree with Blueback, but I have another spin on it.

At those prices alot of things are going to make economic sense and ufortunantly the enviromentalists are going to be ignored.

I think this is a key point. I remember a teacher in 6th or 7th grade. He said something to the effect no one could ever take to US over by walking down Constitution Ave. and ploping a new flag on the whitehouse. They would have to do it by making the people WANT it.

That was something I never really understood beyond the obvious until recently. There is no real reason for the price of gas to be where it. Traditionally, fuel at a marina has always been significantly higher than at the street. The marina where I have my boat is only a few cents higher, and on ocassion is actually cheaper than the gas station at the end of the road.

Maybe the current run up is planned to create a crisis - the opposition to drilling in off limits areas will be more likely to say yes when it's hitting thier pocket. Bush is big oil friendly, he's sure not going to oppose. I personally an not an Obama (or democrat) fan, but I have to say, I'd love to see him elected and then investigate the hell out of the oil industry. Problem is, what are you going to do if they are found grossly guilty?

[SirJac]

The US doesn't set the cost of oil and neither do the oil companies. It's the world market, not the US market.

[md21017md]

Not disputing that point, but speculators can have an influence, and the US us one of the largest if not the largest buyer on the world oil market.

[pkginc]

Coming from the other side of the pond (and from an oil producing country at that), I have another take on this. First off, oil won't go away or decline as much as some of you have stated (imo). Estimates for how much oil we got left constantly change due to new discoveries, new tecnology, demand etc.

When I went to elementary school, we learned that the oil would only last about 20 more years (probably simplified but w/e).
When I went to high school, those 20 years were extended by 20 more (I'm not exactly throwing statistics at you, but you get the point).

There are a mulitude of factors at work here, for instance, will old oil wells become profitable (since there is always oil left in wells, the oil left is just less profitable with what used to be the oil price, so they let it be). This oil left will be profitable to extract with the new oil price (and what will come in the future), and therefore, one can cheaply extract oil (in comparison with the 10 years and tons of money bluebeak mentioned). I'm just throwing this out as one example on how "new" oil will come to the marked.

Another one which has begun on the Norwegian coast is this concept where they are able to extract oil previous thought to be impossible to extract by pressing CO2 into the oil wells, extracting more oil.

I'm just saying that unless you live in a country where 87% of the GNP comes from oil, you probably haven't heard of these things, but that doesn't mean solutions doesn't exist. What I find more interesting is if we'd really like to use those solutions, meaning more pollution. Ingenuity goes a long way...

Another thing people seem to overlook is that by large, the oil price is controlled by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), a cartell. There is no competitive market as such since everybody is more or less following OPECs guidelines (regardless of membership).

[md21017md]

Here is a question, how do these prices compare to the rest of the world?

1979 when I started driving gas hit $.95/gallon and it was the crisis we see today (ok not quite but close)

1992ish the first gold war - when the war was announced gas went from $1.10 or so to $1.50 and it a shock - how will we afford to drive to work?

2004ish gas started a climb up towards $2 and that seemed a choke point.

Last year when gas was bouncing around $2.25 it was where can it go, $maybe $3 nect year? Right now we are where (my guess in Janurary) I thought we'd be $4.25

Next year who know, we could be at $6 as easily as we could be at $3 or $2.

[SirJac]

Not disputing that point, but speculators can have an influence, and the US us one of the largest if not the largest buyer on the world oil market.

If that was true then the value of july oil contracts would have dropped as they were about to mature. Any spectator would have cashed out before that since they wanted to make money, not actually have oil shipped to them. It only dropped about 1% so market forces have been keeping close behind the spectators.

[md21017md]

Ok, I'll grant you the posibility, but if you are true why is it that american gas was $2.25 in my neighborhood last year and now $4.25? Did gas increase that much in the rest of the world?

[SirJac]

Price of gas doubled in the last year. Price of oil double in the last year. Coincidence, I think not. ;) Most other nations tax their fuel heavily so the increased cost of oil doesn't seem so drastic.

[jesse]

Oil and natural gas reaching their current prices is leading everyone into a fork in the road. Decisions should be made on whether to really start finding other sources of energy rather than the typical deadly reliance on oil and natural gas for our energy needs. I believe it will not be an easy transition because OPEC controls much of the production and government have interests in keeping oil and natural gas a commodity because they provide revenue to all parties involved producing and distributing it to consumers.

There are plenty of reasons which are driving up prices for these commodities and blaming a single source is not going to solve anything. BBC has suggested OPEC is already running at full capacity and it will take years before added capacity is viable, and it does not help to have growing economies also taking up an increasing piece of the cake for their own needs. Speculation causes price to rise whenever there's even a minor hint at instability in oil producing nations / regions, perhaps because they get a decent commission for trumping the price tag just a bit higher. Lastly, since US dollars are used for pricing oil barrels and given its weakness and inflation, it is no real wonder that oil seems to get more expensive by the day.

The apex might have been reached and now it is an opportune moment to start considering alternatives. Those who are ahead might reap some serious cash if and when oil and natural gas start to fail and their distribution were to receive a serious dent. The status quo is not going to hold forever.

[blueback]

Again, IGNORE THE PRICE!!!

Did any of you look at any of those links I posted? There is a lot of good information there.

I'll try to make it simple so that everyone can understand why oil production will peak sooner rather than later. Here is my 10 step explanation of why you should worry.


1) The amount of oil the world consumes daily has increased every year since oil was discovered (roughly).
2) So picture a graph with an upward sloping line (away from the origin). The X-axis is time and the Y-axis is amount of oil used
3) Every day we need to produce AS MUCH oil as we did yesterday AND MORE to meet demand, so the line keeps going up and to the right.
4) So if you have a line sloping up from the day oil was discovered to today, the area under the line (a triangle) is the total amount of oil consumed. Ever.
5) Lets say that the total amount of oil that has been used up to today is 1 barrel. It's a proportion, so the actual number doesn't matter.
6) We have used up that 1 barrel of oil in roughly 100 years.
7) Because the line keeps sloping up, we will use up the next 1 barrel of oil in 10 years, not in 100 years. The area underneath the line keeps increasing.
7) That means that we have to pump as much oil out of the Earth in the next 10 years as we have in the last 100 years just to meet demand.
8) That also means the same 1 barrel of oil that we used up in the last 100 years will last us the next 10 years, but 2 barrels of oil will not last for the next 20 years.
9) So, to have a noticable effect on oil supply, we have to find as much oil in the next 10 years as we found in the last 100, and get it into production. An elephant field like Gahwar will postpone the peak by maybe a year.
10) If you look at the numbers the oil companies have released they CAN'T produce enough oil in the next couple decades to meet demand. That is a minimum. The most likely thing, if you look deeper, is that oil production will actually start to decrease.

[wolf]

Bubbles in markets...

Dot-Com Bubble begets the Housing Bubble begets the Commodities Bubble. Eventually they all crash, but this one will crash the economy entirely before it's all said and done.

[Ool]

When I went to elementary school, we learned that the oil would only last about 20 more years (probably simplified but w/e).
When I went to high school, those 20 years were extended by 20 more (I'm not exactly throwing statistics at you, but you get the point).

I don’t know what kind of an elementary school you were going to, but what Hubbard predicted in the ’50s was that oil would peak in the US in 1970, and it did, and that it would peak globally at around 2000, and right now it looks as if it peaked in late 2006.

All the Club of Rome predictions from back in the 1970s about the global limits of growth are also right on target so far. The numbers today match their predictions back then.

So I don’t know what they were teaching you in that respect, but I have to hand it to the minds who taught me that they were fairly prescient…





Ool added to this post, 12 minutes and 15 seconds later...

Another thing people seem to overlook is that by large, the oil price is controlled by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), a cartell. There is no competitive market as such since everybody is more or less following OPECs guidelines (regardless of membership).

Yeah, but the thing is, OPEC’s been around for a while, and yet prices had been on the low side of the spectrum. It’s only recently that they have increased. Why do you think that is?

You see, you can only start increasing prices if either a) your competition is running out or b) if your competition is suddenly playing along with you. Both of which indicate that a shortage is ahead and everyone knows it and that’s why no one is trying to undercut each other any more.

[pkginc]

No offense, but just because you have a source predict it steady doesn't really say anything? I'm not dissing. Maybe you shouldn't either :P I'm not not stating anything either, mind you, I'm just saying that everyone seems to agree that the oil is running short (by X year or whatever), period. There's more to it, I say

It's wrong to say that the price of oil has Xdrupled because of shortage because of X times less oil available. It's not like the quantity oil available has gone down several times (just like the price has gone up)..

I'm sorry, but I don't really understand what you're saying in your second point. Your b) is what I already said, and a) (oil wells running dry) is obviously happening all the time. I don't think there needs to be a shortage to push up the price. Just the threat of a shortage is enough. If you look at the oil price from WW2 till today and compare to world events, I think you'll find some nice examples ;)

[x3r0]

If you look at the numbers you can see that the oil companies are not discovering enough new sources of oil to produce enough to meet demand.

I look for oil. I have worked for every major oil company and many others you have never heard of... We don't stop looking for oil. We look where no man has ever been. The most remote and desolate places on Earth on every continent and even in our great oceans. We can only speculate on how much oil there is but I know for a fact that there is plenty and plenty more deposits to find. The price goes up because they can make it go up. Nothing has changed. Its actually getting cheaper to get.

Its all politics.

[blueback]

I look for oil. I have worked for every major oil company and many others you have never heard of... We don't stop looking for oil. We look where no man has ever been. The most remote and desolate places on Earth on every continent and even in our great oceans. We can only speculate on how much oil there is but I know for a fact that there is plenty and plenty more deposits to find. The price goes up because they can make it go up. Nothing has changed. Its actually getting cheaper to get.

Its all politics.

You know, for a fact, that there is more oil to find. . .that's nice. Do you also know, for a fact, that it will be enough to meet demand? Do you also know, for a fact, that even if there is enough that we can get it into production fast enought to meet demand?

I never said that anyone had stopped looking for oil, or stopped producing it, or anything like that. I said that the rate of discovery has dropped so low that production WILL fall sort of demand in the near future. Since you're an expert you should have access to all sorts of data on the subject. Why not share with the rest of us?

And no, it's not "all politics." Oil is a very real, very finite resource. It has to be drilled for, pumped, refined, shipped, etc. The ease with which it has been distributed in the past has lead people to the erroneous assumption that it will always be that way.

[x3r0]

I am not an expert by any means and I really didn't mean to come off as someone who is an expert but I do know some people who are experts on this subject. I am sorry if I came off that way.

Well I recently (this past January) worked in Fort McMurray, AB, Canada. As you probably know, Alberta has the second largest oil deposit in the world (second to the Saudi Arabia reserves). In 2006 Alberta's oil sands were the source of about 62 per cent of the province's total crude oil and equivalent production and about 47 per cent of all crude oil produced in Canada.

Annual oil sands production is growing steadily as the industry matures. Output of marketable oil sands production increased to 1.126 million barrels per day in 2006. With anticipated growth, this level of production could reach 3 million barrels per day by 2020 and possibly even 5 million barrels per day by 2030. This degree of activity would support the development of other key industries and see Alberta become a Global Energy Leader.

I believe that we will fall short of demand as well but not in the near future or in a huge way. Yes prices of oil per barrel will continue to rise and as will gas prices but it isn't because we can not find it or produce it, its more political in my opinion. Like I said I am no expert by any means.

[blueback]

Right. You know, I posted a long list of informational websites. . .why don't you become an expert?

Yes, the tar sands contain more oil than has been produced in 100 years, but they are called TAR sands for a reason. The oil has to be floated out of the sand with hot water. Basically, it's a huge pain in the ass and it's fresh-water hungry to boot. It will only become relatively efficient as the price of oil rises. It will never replace the shortfall in conventional crude sources in a meaningful way. Locally it will make a difference, and it will continue to provide a small stream of oil for a very long time, but that's all.

The oil shales are pretty much the same thing. The oil has to be heated until if flows and can be pumped, another inefficient and fresh-water hungry process. However, as oil becomes more expensive this source will provide a small stream for a very long time.

I'm not saying that the oil will "run out" in the sense that we can't find any more. I am saying that the amount of oil we can produce will steadily fall. There will still be oil, but there will be less and less of it each day.

Just do some reading.

[SirJac]

The problem with the oil sands is that it's a fixed output, it's always going at 100% unlike conventional oil reserves. The cost is also significantly higher, the break even point is roughly $60/barrel and climbing because of the increasing costs of materials and manpower. New projects take about 10 years to come online, and slated projects don't come close to making up for declining output of current fields much less meeting rising demand.

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As long as we keep using more oil then we discover each year, then it doesn't take much to put 2 and 2 together and realise that we're going to hit a wall at some point. It simply a matter of when global demand passes global output, which looking at the trends should occur this year. We won't know for sure until the numbers are crunched though.



IEA's 5 year outlook (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.)

[blueback]

I just hope that we don't crash. The potential is there, especially if people start making bad political decisions. If we do crash it will occur right in the middle of my lifetime and I don't think I'll handle it very well.

[Ool]

I just hope that we don't crash. The potential is there, especially if people start making bad political decisions. If we do crash it will occur right in the middle of my lifetime and I don't think I'll handle it very well.

What I’m more worried about is that in order to avert the crash for their country the big powers start more and more militant grabs for the last low-hanging fruit around the world, eventually triggering another world war. Trying to take control over the oil was what the Iraq invasion was about, after all, as well as the plans to go for Iran next.

You see, a crash wouldn’t be so bad in the developed countries. So people would be forced to drive less, they would have to grow and sell food closer to home, they’d get thinner and less run over by cars as a result. The downside might be that communities might get isolated and parochial once more, but I’m not so sure of that, since the internet is still going to exist, which can be run by locally produced electricity just fine.

The developing countries that are dependent on global imports of vital goods, such as food, may not have quite as rosy a future…

What is truly frustrating is that there is a real chance to get out of this bottleneck by changing the infrastructure. It’s not as if there’s not enough energy around; it’s just the liquid combustible fuel that’s getting scarce. If the transportation infrastructure could be electrified then mobility would still be possible. I wonder if it would be possible to build highways, for instance, feeding electric cars through the asphalt (or whatever roads are going to be built of in the future) by electromagnetic induction. Then there’s production of biofuel, for which the most promising source would be algae, because that’s what produced all the oil millions of years ago anyway. And then there is, of course, the Holy Grail of energy abundance, which is all the solar energy not just shining down on this planet but passing the planet by unused. If only we could easily access surface area in space then, even if we were never able to make photovoltaics more efficient, we’d still be swimming in energy, compared to which the fossil fuels of the 20th century were a mere trickle.

[blueback]

Yeah, the problem is that no one gets to a position powerful enough to push for that stuff until they're middle aged. By that point they are so indebted to the old system that they don't know anything else and they are so old that they don't care about what happens after they die.

I hope that the peak is gradual enough to pressure us to change without being so steep that we can't respond to it naturally. The peak just requires too much foresight to not be dangerous.