What it's coming to...

[Learning]

Energy fears looming, new survivalists prepare

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This is a brief article; please read. What do you think?

[PHS Philip]

I think that those measures are pretty extreme (especially because we won't run out for several decades, from what I remember), but I do have to agree to the extent that it will certainly be...interesting when oil runs out, if we haven't transferred over to something new.

[Mozzes]

I'm not too worried about it. I still have faith in the development of alternative energy sources but even if that fails to occur in time a couple of things will happen to keep me from living in some sort of weird post-apocalyptic America a la The Postman. I don't think anyone wants to live in a crappy Kevin Costner movie so the first thing that will happen is that congress will green light domestic offshore and shale oil drilling. Current conservative estimates puts the untapped American oil supply at triple that of Saudi Arabia, or enough to keep us burning fossil fuels at least into the next century.

And if somehow the worse-case scenario does occur I'll take my degree and work somewhere in Europe, China or Russia.

[Learning]

...I still have faith in the development of alternative energy sources but even if that fails to occur in time a couple of things will happen to keep me from living in some sort of weird post-apocalyptic America a la The Postman. I don't think anyone wants to live in a crappy Kevin Costner movie... **And if somehow the worse-case scenario does occur I'll take my degree and work somewhere in Europe, China or Russia.

**:laugh:.

Thanks for the insight on the oil estimates/statistics.

Are you concerned at all about global weather events that are theorized/predicted because of global warming?

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[Mozzes]

**:laugh:.

Thanks for the insight on the oil estimates/statistics.

Are you concerned at all about global weather events that are theorized/predicted because of global warming?

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It's actually not global warming per se that I'm worried about but the myriad of other toxins associated with industrialization that get dumped into the environment.

Don't get me wrong carbon emissions and global warming are also (probably) important but we don't really know as much about that at the moment. CO2 levels were 20 times higher about 500 million years ago and our understanding of climate change is in it's infancy. We don't really know what we're talking about in terms of climate change or what is driving it, if what's happening is a bad thing and if it is if we can change it. It's easy to say that the weather is more violent now but we don't really have much evidence on which to base that claim. On the other hand not much research is needed to figure out that dumping heavy metals, organic solvents, and pesticides into lakes and rivers is a bad idea.

[thod]

Alas I am becoming more and more sympathetic to them, I am starting to see things the same way. The systems are too fragile, too interconnected and unsustainable.

Consider the black death wiping out a third of people in Europe. They survived well because they were generalists. There were a third less farmers and a third less lords, the reduced numbers did alter the system in any way. Now we are have no redundancy in the system and small disruptions are magnified.

Ever wonder why the great plains were not farmed earlier, it wasn't Indians. It was because you could grow you corn and then there was no way to bring it to market except mule train. If you cant sell it, you dont grow it. All our food is distributed via oil, all our food is grown via through tractors and fertilizer. If the supermarkets didn't get delivery there would be nothing to buy. If the electricity went down you have no TV, no heat, heck most people couldn't live without a washing machine and refrigerator.

Lets suppose there is a banking crisis next week. All the branch's shut up and you cant get cash from ATM's. How will you cope then. You cant access savings, you cant get paid, you cant buy what is for sale.

Only the Mormons would thrive since they have 2 years stored food.

I would be ok, because I have lots of cans, dried pulses and grains stashed. I also keep gold, silver, and cash stashed for trade. Got to keep it all hidden though one thing I cant protect against is looters where I live.

The odd thing is I have only recently been feeling like this, I am not usually paranoid. Perhaps its the news stories I read setting off some sub conscious alarms, which is why I have started building my stash. My fear is not environmental disaster, its another great depression coming. How many of you would last if wal-mart went into liquidation.

[Pirate1650]

I'll just get a horse and start a farm. That is what people did 100 years ago before cars and cell phones.

[thod]

I'll just get a horse and start a farm. That is what people did 100 years ago before cars and cell phones

Do you know many people with plough horses for sale? Just head down to the stable and buy one? I would suggest there would be non for sale. What more you nothing about caring for horses, how to feed it, or how to equip one to pull a plough. You dont even have a plough that can be pulled by a horse, nor could you obtain one. You dont know how to plough, harrow, or spread dung on a field. How to sow and how to harvest using a scythe, how to thresh and grind corn, how to store it away from rodents etc.

Its not so easy to start a farm, you will find all the land is owned and the land will be used by the owners for their own food needs.

What can you do? Do you have skills in violence? carpentry? blacksmithing? No, I suggest you are a helpless child of the internet and TV age and would be one of the first to die off.

[Monte314]

None of us is prepared, nor able to adequately prepare, for a complete breakdown of the supply infrastructure. I personally expect any degradation in services to be spotty, gradual, and limited.

[Pirate1650]

Actually I do have skills in violence and I love camping. The only trouble would be the farming actually, I don't have much luck in taking care of anything that is alive besides people, nothing that can't be learned though. I guess a more realistic plan would be to offer protection to a farmer in exchange for food. I can cook too! I could be the post-apocalyptic ninja-chef.

[Shakyamuni]

Absurd. What kind of rational person honestly lives their life in fear of an apocalypse in our day and age? The cold war ended nearly twenty years ago and even then according to my parents it was only the wackos who built nuclear bomb shelters.

Sure I could plan for a thousand year flood or an earthquake, or an asteroid, or the end of oil. The question is really a matter of relative risk versus cost. What is the probability of societal collapse? Highly unlikely. The technology for alternative fuels is out there. All it takes is the economic impetus. Take Al Gore's crusade versus the price of gas at the pumps for example. I think we all know the answer to what the greater impetus for change is. This has been statistically proven:

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So basically just wait for oil to get so expensive that alternative technologies become more viable. Then we will change. In the meantime, point out some hard facts to me about the impending Armageddon and I'll start stockpiling food. Otherwise I'll just laugh at people for their stupidity.

[SirJac]

While they are a little extreme, they arn't completely wrong either. Peak oil doesn't mean that we can't use more oil, it means there is physically less oil to be had. Even if you can afford it, doesn't mean your guaranteed it. It won't be the cost of oil that does the damage, it's the shortages.