China's one child policy - social unrest implications?

[westcoaster]

Currently in China 121 boys are born for every 100 girls (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.), meaning 1/6th of Chinese men will be unable to find a Chinese wife.

By 2020 there will be 24 million horny, single and probably angry men - think 6x all the males in NYC, or 2x the men in Texas - unable to find a woman. This can not be good for the social stability of China (unless they're all INTJ's). If allowed to continue, the imbalance will in theory grow until ultimately settling at 1/11th of their population, using today's numbers that'd be ~121 million men.

Just taking the 24 million figure which appears to be a certainty by 2020, how do you think this will ultimately play out in the next few years?


These men form the vanguard of the next revolution in China sending the Communists and one-child policy out?
China invades N Korea, S Korea, Japan or Taiwan to "integrate" their women into China?
China starts purging or deporting the undesireable men from its society?


My suggestions are partially tongue in cheek, but really I think this could be the story of the first 50 years of this century, and ultimately the downfall of the Communist government in China. All governments encouraging their populace to get a spouse, house, and kids as it gives people hope knowing their spawn will live on, and "settles" them down, typically taking the radical thoughts from their mind.

Could this gender imbalance be the fly in the ointment that will ultimately stop China's seemingly unstoppable rise to economic/military/political superpower status?

[kepstein8888]

I guess they didn't think through the details of the one-child policy very well.

Imagine a billion desperate Chinese lounge-lizards...several billion gold chains, and trillions of cheesy pick-up lines.

[Slacker]

Actually, a good predictor of social unrest is the "youth bulge". China will have the opposite of a youth bulge, and consequently a very low risk of social unrest. There is no overpowering need for females. (Certain) men always face a shortage of women (except on US college campuses, apparently, but that would be another thread). The Chinese will deal with it as it has been dealt with through the ages. Masturbation, overproductivity and ludicrous figurine collections.

[Night Runner]

Actually, the one child policy is rarely enforced nowadays - families with two or more kids are not uncommon. The phenomenon you're referring to was caused primarily by people aborting female fetuses back when the policy was in effect. (A son can benefit the family far more than a daughter.) It got to such a ridiculous point that the Chinese government had to all but outlaw ultrasounds. (They still do this a lot in rural India, though.)

My guess is that absolutely nothing will happen. Oh, there may be some minor unrest, a couple of activists and perhaps even a dissident writer who will gain a brief fame before dying of mysterious causes. :rolleyes: You have to remember - this is the country where millions died of starvation during the Great Leap Forward only ~50 years ago. People would eat tree bark and grass rather than invade the state's warehouses filled with grain - that's the kind of loyalty that's cultivated among the Chinese...

[Nightsun]

I agree with Chinese children policy (shoot at me). A country like China can't stand further grow. Chinese people should be blamed for killing girls, but I don't see any possible option for the children policy. Actually I see overgrowing Earth population un-ethic (I also see killing female un-ethic but really I don't see any other way to keep the population grow low in a country like China without a restrictive law, the un-ethic part is that they kill the girls not that they have the law). Many occidental country have a negative grow trend (without immigration) but China didn't have enough time to do it in a natural-cultural changing way.

[westcoaster]

Actually, a good predictor of social unrest is the "youth bulge". China will have the opposite of a youth bulge, and consequently a very low risk of social unrest. There is no overpowering need for females.

I guess my point is that I personally believe age isn't a predictor of social unrest as much as whether or not you see a future for yourself and "settle down" (a spouse, kids and house). If you have no forseeable future for yourself and have no dependents on yourself (wife to take care of, children to feed) no matter what your age is, why do you need to conform to society rules?

In general age is highly correlated to marriage and kids, so the trend you spoke of is true, but I believe for the first time in history the correlation will be broken with such a large cohort of men, and the fallout I suspect will be very interesting.

[darynthe]

I made a thread about this before:
Psychology of unequal male/female distribution. (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.)

Anyway, I think it would be interesting if polygamia was allowed. In this case women with several husbands.

[Silverity]

The article link gave me a 404 =(

Not all those boys born in China will stay in China though, I'm willing to bet some of them will immigrate over to North America and we have lots, and lots, and lots... of Chinese over here, including packs of bachelorettes. So I'm not sure if it's really a problem. People are so geographically mixed now I don't think you need to stay in your own country to find someone of your own culture or background.

[Mogura]

By 2020 China will have become such a huge economic power that women from the West will relocate to China to pursue the "Chinese Dream". So, things should work out in the end...

[TheLastMohican]

By 2020 China will have become such a huge economic power that women from the West will relocate to China to pursue the "Chinese Dream". So, things should work out in the end...
Great. That'll leave millions of American men without partners ... but unlike the Chinese ones, they'll have shotguns.

[Mogura]

Great. That'll leave millions of American men without partners ... but unlike the Chinese ones, they'll have shotguns.

On the contrary, American men won't mind or even notice that their women have gone missing; they'll be too busy working 340 hours/week to pay off their debts, as well as the debts of their nation...

[Mader]

Or, there will be millions of Chinese men who are unmarried and available to join the Chinese army.

[Causa Mortis]

On the contrary, American men won't mind or even notice that their women have gone missing; they'll be too busy working 340 hours/week to pay off their debts, as well as the debts of their nation...

Wow, Rocky Balboa (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.) says you are full of shit. Stop with the melodrama.

24 million single Chinese men is... 0.25% of their population? I don't think one fourth of one percent of your population having to own dogs and use fleshlights is a crisis.

My guess about the love economics of the situation is that the average age of marriage for men in China will go up, and that women will up their standards a tad. A formal or informal dowry system is also possible, in which case the Chinese will start killing their boys instead of their girls.

[westcoaster]

24 million single Chinese men is... 0.25% of their population? I don't think one fourth of one percent of your population having to own dogs and use fleshlights is a crisis.


It's actually ~2% (24MM / 1.3B) but I don't think looking at the entire population is relevant since it includes older balanced generations who will be dying out. The real issue is with the post-1979 Chinese generation.

From 1980 - 2008, ~580 million babies were born in China (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.), and the London article says that cohort will have 38 million more boys than girls (24 million was from a shorter timeframe). This means ~310 million boys and 271 million girls were born and that 38 million boys will not be able to find a Chinese mate (12% or 1 in 8 of all boys in that generation, and 7% or 1 in 14 of total population in that generation).

But the disparity of boys to girls has been increasing in recent years, and the 12% and 7% are now 16% and 9% for babies born in 2005-2006.

Pre-one child: 105 boys to 100 girls
1982: 108 boys to 100 girls
1990: 111 boys to 100 girls
2000: 116 boys to 100 girls
2005: 119 boys to 100 girls
2006: 120.5 boys to 100 girls

So would having 12% of all boys (and 7% of the population) in China born since 1979 having to "own dogs and use fleshlights" give you more cause for concern?

[Causa Mortis]

So would having 12% of all boys (and 7% of the population) in China born since 1979 having to "own dogs and use fleshlights" give you more cause for concern?

No. It will just shift incentive structures in China. It will probably lead to a spike in sex tourism, or some other direct sex-for-money scheme, or generate a dowry system.

Furthermore, being single and male is not a crisis. I think most prefer to be in health relationships, but there's no need to be melodramatic about not having a committed romantic partner.

Running around screaming about trends half a world away that have absolutely nothing to do with things here is pointless. There are more than enough issues right in front of us to keep us on constant panic...well at least if you watch the news. I don't really worry about Chinese men coming here and stealing our women any more than I worry about them taking our jobs. Its just silly.

[MikeC]

No. It will just shift incentive structures in China. It will probably lead to a spike in sex tourism, or some other direct sex-for-money scheme, or generate a dowry system.

Furthermore, being single and male is not a crisis. I think most prefer to be in health relationships, but there's no need to be melodramatic about not having a committed romantic partner.

Running around screaming about trends half a world away that have absolutely nothing to do with things here is pointless. There are more than enough issues right in front of us to keep us on constant panic...well at least if you watch the news. I don't really worry about Chinese men coming here and stealing our women any more than I worry about them taking our jobs. Its just silly.

Please clarify if this is an isolationist, American-centric forum?

[Causa Mortis]

Please clarify if this is an isolationist, American-centric forum?

If this forum had a sizeable portion of Chinese it would quickly be blocked. Cause, you know, speech is dangerwous.

The OP is America, as are most of the posters. I do not see why its my or anyone else's responsibility to ensure that Chinese men are getting laid, particularly when it results directly from disgusting infanticide and inane political policies. Its also likely to correct itself in time but, Asian men were never exactly on top of the dating food chain anyways, and this policy only exaccerbates that so, yeah, I'm sure its a bigger issue for some of us than it is for others.

As an aside, I'd welcome their competition in the American dating market. I'm sure they'll (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.) compete extremely well (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. ial_marriage_by_pairing)

[Eratosthenes]

I think it's pretty difficult to say what effect, if any, a gender imbalance ten years from now will cause.