View Full Version : INTJ solution to national debt?
hubcap
02-04-2010, 09:37 AM
Regardless of party affiliation or idealogy we should all be willing to face the fact that the United States is facing a fiscal crisis (yes I mean crisis) at some point in the not-so-distant future. Depending on whose numbers you choose to accept our current national debt is around the $12 Trillion mark, and the current un-funded liabilities for entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare are over $50 trillion. Increases in Medicare spending were outpacing GDP growth by over 2% when the economy was growing. It looks at this point like we will have a $1.5 Trillion deficit in 2011 and for the next several years as well.
The reality of the situation that pretty much everyone agrees on, is that this cannot continue. At some point in the very near future we will reach a financial "critical mass" if you will. So, I would like to propose the following question:
What would your plan be to solve the financial problem and get the federal government back on a fiscally responsible track with a budget surplus and how long will it take? Your recommendations should also include dealing with the unfunded liabilities. I'm looking for quantifiable and specific recommendations rather than philosophical or idealogical answers. I would also like to suggest that whatever your remedies may be, that you provide insight as to how you would deal with the ramifications. For instance, if you suggest tax increases provide some insight as to what effect that will have on economic growth and jobs creations/losses.
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themuzicman
02-04-2010, 10:01 AM
Would probably take 2 or 3 years (favorable congress) to balance the budget.
I would axe the department of Education (complete failure) and dept of commerce (useless).
I would completely overhaul food stamps (give prescribed meals rather than cash, use cheap foods such as canned vegetables and dark chicken meat. This would also cure welfare obesity in children.)
I would institute mandatory drug testing for all welfare recipients, with expulsion from the rolls and referral to child services for any positive tests.
I would index medicare (all plans) to net worth.
I would index social security (for the elderly) to net worth and income at retirement, and require an accounting of any significant net worth changes within 5 years of retirement.
I would end ear marks.
As for "unfunded liabilities", I would look to end any such programs, if possible, or reform them in such a way that states aren't burdened.
I would also reform the tax code and eliminate most tax credits for weird stuff like energy efficient windows and new home buying and such. My goal would be to get everyone down to a 1040A form. I would also significantly lower the standard deduction and eliminate the alternative minimum tax.
Which should allow us to cut marginal tax rates.
I would also look at military cost reform. Do a realistic cost/benefit analysis on all bases and systems, including looking at current threats, and reorganize those costs to be more effective.
I would push for a line item veto constitutional amendment.
Finally, I would establish a "pay off debt" entry in the budget, and look to shove as much money into that as I could.
INTJRyan
02-04-2010, 10:14 AM
Legalize, regulate and tax soft drugs. Full and complete pardon to anyone whose sole crime is simple possession of cannabis. The war on drugs is over and drugs won. Can't afford to continue to incarcerate so many people and cannot support violent foreign cartels any longer.
Scale back defense. By half. We would still outspend every other country. Scrap missile defense. Take a portion of that money and begin a "Manhattan Project" for a post-petroleum era energy supply and/or to modernize our transportation infrastructure. Every vehicle mandated to get 28+ MPG by end of my second term. ;) Modernize and rely on our nuclear weapons more, less emphasis on infantry/tanks/artillery etc. Combine a few of our foreign military bases. Withdraw from Iraq.
Restore tax rates to Reagan first term levels. Cap government salaries at $150,000 period. For everyone from the president on down. Eliminate tax breaks for churches who are involved with politics. Eliminate redundant government agencies that exist at both the federal and state levels.
OK so who is on board?!
themuzicman
02-04-2010, 10:22 AM
Legalize, regulate and tax soft drugs. Full and complete pardon to anyone whose sole crime is simple possession of cannabis. The war on drugs is over and drugs won. Can't afford to continue to incarcerate so many people and cannot support violent foreign cartels any longer.
I can see removing incarceration for small possession of marijuana, but make the fine big enough that it's actually a deterrent.
Scale back defense. By half. We would still outspend every other country. Scrap missile defense.
The reason that most nations are much smaller is that we provide for their defense. Why are we in Europe? Saudi Arabia? Diego Garcia? Not that we shouldn't be there, but the comparison to other defense budget isn't a good one (although I would favor pulling out of Europe and Saudi altogether.)
Take a portion of that money and begin a "Manhattan Project" for a post-petroleum era energy supply and/or to modernize our transportation infrastructure. Every vehicle mandated to get 28+ MPG by end of my second term. ;)
Remember that "unfunded mandate" thing? You just put every construction business out of business.
Modernize and rely on our nuclear weapons more, less emphasis on infantry/tanks/artillery etc. Combine a few of our foreign military bases. Withdraw from Iraq.
Seriously? INCREASE the opportunity to use Nukes?
Restore tax rates to Reagan first term levels.
Not a bad idea.
Cap government salaries at $150,000 period. For everyone from the president on down.
Meh... You dont' want to eliminate smart people because of a salary cap.
Eliminate tax breaks for churches who are involved with politics. Eliminate redundant government agencies that exist at both the federal and state levels.
Agreed.
OK so who is on board?!
Partially.
INTJRyan
02-04-2010, 10:29 AM
Partially.
Maybe I should rethink my positions. ;)
musicman, they're not in high government positions because they're 'smart'; they're there because they're connected.
legalize and tax prostitution.
remove the overgenerous retirement system of congress and tie their raises to social security (along with the need test musicman proposes).
select congress by lottery drawing; most people on the street have either equal or better sense of money management than the lawyers we have in congress.
cut off all contributions to reelection campaigns. shut off the money, we'll get some people in office who may want to serve instead of steal.
hubcap
02-04-2010, 10:40 AM
These are all great ideas, but nobody has ponied-up $$$ amounts
boldbidder
02-04-2010, 10:41 AM
Eliminate social security for anyone under age 50. Ages 40-50 stop paying, all those of working age pay until age 35.
Reinstate the draft, all citizens of viable age are required to serve a min of 2 years in the military (clock doesn't start until after basic). Simultaneously change the benefit structure so that all the wonderful Vet bennies don't kick in for anyone doing just the min (assuming they aren't injured/maimed). Chalk it up as the cost for citizenship.
All illegal immigrants get automatic naturalization after a 4 year tenure in the service.
Raise corp income tax on all multinational orgs on a sliding scale based on number of employees currently in the US. You move jobs overseas your tax bracket goes up.
the cost of congressional retirement is almost impossible to tie down without better data:
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lets just say 'it has many zeroes' x about 600 or so.
the prosties are an unknown #. you will not know until you get some real enforcement, and then some will slip under the wire due to the cash nature of the business...are all those who got 'treats' to vote for the health care bill prostitutes? that would up the ante, and cause bleedover between the two estimates of 'legalize prostitution' and 'tie congressional retirement to social security'. i think mary landrieu is cute, though...pelosi, not so much (ick...looks like a pair of old boots i threw out). i really detest paying big bucks for an old madam.
the soft money flowing under the table in reelection campaigns is the same kind of 'how big is that?'. it's big...promise.
yoginimama
02-04-2010, 11:42 AM
For the short term:
1) CLOSE ALL TAX LOOPHOLES. Make people actually pay what they owe.
2) Close down all foreign military bases PLUS the troops in Afghanistan PLUS the troops in Iraq and bring 'em all back home. Biggest mass withdrawal in history. Immediate ramification: huge numbers of people flooding into an economy which cannot absorb them. Short-to-medium term solution: Emergency-fund a vast public works initiative to fix our sub-par infrastructure, which can employ all the "extra" military folks and probably some civilians too. This will almost certainly be much cheaper than paying for all those bases and missions, resulting in a net savings AND probably some stimulation to the domestic economy.
3) In the name of national security, emergency-fund a full-court press on green technology. Right now, China has the lead in green technology development:
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Which means they have a head start on the future. This is like the old 1950s space race, except for real. If we are going to have a developed economy in the future, we have no choice, imho, but to develop aggressively on this front.
4) Space exploration/colonization too. We do not want to wake up in twenty years and find that China owns the moon and India owns Mars.
Having saved a metrick fuckton of money by closing our bases and ending our two current wars, spent some of it to absorb all that personnel back into the economy while at the same time upgrading our infrastructure to keep up with the rest of the developed world, AND having spent the rest of it to stimulate R&D in green technology and Martian colonies...
We are now back where we started with regard to the deficit, although primed for a much more productive future, and can now begin to deal with the deficit itself.
5) The unfunded mandates (Social Security, Medicare). Well, it is simple. Since both Bush and Obama seem to think that American presidents have the right to order the extra-judicial assassination of American citizens whom they deem to be "terrorists" or enemies of the homeland--
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So, I would announce that all United States corporations better pony up their profits to cover the unfunded mandates in this time of (as hubcap put it) national crisis. Bonuses, capital gains, any corporate profits over and above the 5% needed for survival--into the public kitty, folks, because Social Security and Medicare SERVE A SOCIAL STABILITY PURPOSE. They keep us from turning into a very cold, dark India where beggars choke the streets. Since Social Security and Medicare help keep the domestic peace, therefore, I consider them part of national security and will have no problem putting the (temporary!) screws to American companies to pay for these programs (from which they themselves benefit). Any CEO wants to get uppity with me about it, he can find himself declared an enemy of the American people and eat Trijicon lead.
6) .05 nanoseconds later, the Republicans will have totally impeached me for continuing the Bush-Obama policy of ordering extrajudicial assassinations of Americans now that it turns out it could mean THEY would be the targets. I will have my lawyers delay by arguing that they can't take me down without taking themselves down too. Meanwhile, the unfunded mandates will be paid for, giving us a chance to start over.
7) To secure the future of the unfunded mandates, my veep, now President, will use emergency powers to set up single-payer universal health care which will be cheap, efficient, cost-plus, and justified by the fact that we ARE, in fact, in a national crisis where our future as a developed nation is at stake. If we cannot find a way to provide health care and a minimal income to all our citizens, then all our improvements on green technology, space exploitation and infrastructure won't mean anything. We still won't be competitive. So health care will be taken care of by single payer...as for Social Security, I'll be hoping that, by now (a year or two later), my former veep can slow down the investment in works progress and green technology and direct some of those funds to cover that mandate.
8) After another year or two--the end of what would have been my first term had I not been impeached and probably shot--the savings to the defense budget should start to really become evident, our renewed status as technological leaders should stimulate the economy massively and generate a lot of new tax revenue, and my former veep would use that revenue to begin paying down the national debt.
This is just off the top of my head. But that's more or less what I'd do.
themuzicman
02-04-2010, 11:50 AM
^^ and that's why we don't have a lottery to select representatives.
elsdfr
02-04-2010, 12:42 PM
Inflate it away? If you owe money then if you erode its value and you pay less back.
Go bankrupt? Mmm, not sure I want to think about the consequences of that one.
Reduce spending?
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plotthickens
02-04-2010, 12:52 PM
Balance the budget. Put everything that costs the Fed Gov, except infrastructure, on a nationwide ballot (same day as pres elections). Percent of votes is percent of expenditure; expenditure is total spendable taxes. Save 1% a year, every year unemployment falls under certain level, for rainy-day fund.
Campaign contribution spending caps of $300 per person per campaign; all contributions to be made public on the Web.
Medical and retirement benefits for all salaried elected officials is set as equal to the top of the middle third of their constituency.
Remove privileged 'person' status of corporations.
Causa Mortis
02-04-2010, 01:18 PM
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The Federal Reserve owns half the national debt. That's not real debt. That's your left hand borrowing money from your right. So start with cutting your debt numbers in half.
Of the private debt, every dollar in interest paid is income for others. The wealthy earn most of that interest, and the wealthy will pay most of the taxes in the future. An issue? Yes. Anything to panic about? No.
The only debt that creates a real burden for future generations is international debt, which is currently sitting at less than 20% of one year's GDP, with most of that being debt held for foreign exchange purchases at diminunitive interest rates.
In comparison to 14,000,000-18,000,000 Americans being out of work and a liquidity trap that leaves monetary policy impotent, deficits are really trivial stuff. Once unemployment gets back to a semi-normal number then deficits should become a focus again.
The only low-hanging fruit that I can see is the Republican's War on Drugs. Ending the war would save 50 billion or so in direct costs, and you could earn a fairly significant amount of revenue by allowing competitive production of weed and coke and then taxing these goods to their current black market prices. But REPUBLICANS ARE OFFENDED BY PEOPLE SMOKING WEED SO WE CAN'T
Then I'd make Social Security a flat tax instead of a regressive one. No deductions, no caps, everyone pays the same chunk. Opposed by the Republicans.
After that, the Republican's War in Iraq is delivering little benefit for enormous costs.
Then there's the Republican's Pill Bill that's just pure corporate payolla to big pharma. Since pharma was struggling anyways :rolleyes:
Then there's the pointless Republican tax cuts of 2001. Cause cuttin' those taxes on the wealthiest people in history from 39 to 36 percent had a huge effect on economic efficiency :rolleyes:
Then there's a massive amount of largely unnecessary military spending brought to you by the Republican party. We don't need 10+ active fleet carriers. We don't need a 2x1 advantage in air superiority fighters when we have large quality gaps. We don't need an army that's largely built to handle the USSR.
Then there's farm subsidies and various other forms of state capitalism supported by both parties. Best to end these once employment picks back up though.
...this clusterfuck was brought to you by the same charlatans who brought you the War in Iraq, the failed response to Hurricane Katrina, the financial deregulation mania, and the housing bubble.
Amphorian
02-04-2010, 02:46 PM
Reinstate the draft, all citizens of viable age are required to serve a min of 2 years in the military (clock doesn't start until after basic). Simultaneously change the benefit structure so that all the wonderful Vet bennies don't kick in for anyone doing just the min (assuming they aren't injured/maimed). Chalk it up as the cost for citizenship.
Many soliders would be extremely uncomfortable with that. It's better to have someone working the line with you that wants to be there, instead of someone that'd high tail it the first chance they get.
^^ and that's why we don't have a lottery to select representatives.
oh, give her a chance, fer gosh sake. her staff will blame a white supremacist for the assassination.
i agree with her about staying out of the rest of the world. as far as letting china and india have the other planets, who cares? some of china i have seen on tv looks like mars already.
run for office, yogi. i'll vote for ya!
El Cas
02-04-2010, 03:44 PM
I would completely overhaul food stamps (give prescribed meals rather than cash, use cheap foods such as canned vegetables and dark chicken meat. This would also cure welfare obesity in children.)
Yes, a rehaul would ensure that all fraud and waste is reduced significantly if not eliminated.
I would institute mandatory drug testing for all welfare recipients, with expulsion from the rolls and referral to child services for any positive tests.
This will surely eliminate a lot of the burdon on the program.
I would establish a "pay off debt" entry in the budget, and look to shove as much money into that as I could.
Though this is a good idea, I would rather reduce the overall budget and if and when the budget begins to show a surplus I would place that amount to paying off the debt.
Legalize, regulate and tax soft drugs. Full and complete pardon to anyone whose sole crime is simple possession of cannabis. The war on drugs is over and drugs won. Can't afford to continue to incarcerate so many people and cannot support violent foreign cartels any longer.
This will greatly serve as a revenue generator (look at the data from California partial legalization). I would not pardon those whose sole crime was to simply possess cannabis. I would let them finish their term. I would place high fines to deter people from doing it vice incarceration of future offenders.
Scale back defense. By half. We would still outspend every other country. Scrap missile defense. Take a portion of that money and begin a "Manhattan Project" for a post-petroleum era energy supply and/or to modernize our transportation infrastructure. Every vehicle mandated to get 28+ MPG by end of my second term. ;) Modernize and rely on our nuclear weapons more, less emphasis on infantry/tanks/artillery etc. Combine a few of our foreign military bases. Withdraw from Iraq.
I do not agree with a full scaling back of defense. I do agree that reduction of certain aspects of the military would be good but increasing the amount allocated to Nukes is not the way to go. I would do as you said, allocate funds for a "Manhattan Project" for post-petroleum era energy supply and/or modernice our transportation infrastructure. I would open up the railways to privatization, this should reduce maintance cost, overall oil consumption and increase the number of jobs.
Restore tax rates to Reagan first term levels. Cap government salaries at $150,000 period. For everyone from the president on down. Eliminate tax breaks for churches who are involved with politics. Eliminate redundant government agencies that exist at both the federal and state levels.
I agree there.
they're not in high government positions because they're 'smart'; they're there because they're connected.
and they have money to become connected.
legalize and tax prostitution.
Yes.
remove the overgenerous retirement system of congress and tie their raises to social security (along with the need test musicman proposes).
This would greatly reduce the amount wasted in goverment spending.
select congress by lottery drawing; most people on the street have either equal or better sense of money management than the lawyers we have in congress.
Though this may be slightly true, the odds of finding someone in the general public with great money managing sense will be on to not warrent the lottery system.
cut off all contributions to reelection campaigns. shut off the money, we'll get some people in office who may want to serve instead of steal.
AMEN
For the short term:
1) CLOSE ALL TAX LOOPHOLES. Make people actually pay what they owe.
2) Close down all foreign military bases PLUS the troops in Afghanistan PLUS the troops in Iraq and bring 'em all back home. Biggest mass withdrawal in history. Immediate ramification: huge numbers of people flooding into an economy which cannot absorb them. Short-to-medium term solution: Emergency-fund a vast public works initiative to fix our sub-par infrastructure, which can employ all the "extra" military folks and probably some civilians too. This will almost certainly be much cheaper than paying for all those bases and missions, resulting in a net savings AND probably some stimulation to the domestic economy.
3) In the name of national security, emergency-fund a full-court press on green technology. Right now, China has the lead in green technology development:
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Which means they have a head start on the future. This is like the old 1950s space race, except for real. If we are going to have a developed economy in the future, we have no choice, imho, but to develop aggressively on this front.
4) Space exploration/colonization too. We do not want to wake up in twenty years and find that China owns the moon and India owns Mars.
Having saved a metrick fuckton of money by closing our bases and ending our two current wars, spent some of it to absorb all that personnel back into the economy while at the same time upgrading our infrastructure to keep up with the rest of the developed world, AND having spent the rest of it to stimulate R&D in green technology and Martian colonies...
We are now back where we started with regard to the deficit, although primed for a much more productive future, and can now begin to deal with the deficit itself.
1) I agree
2) Partially Agree.
3) I would not order a full court press, but I would increase funds towards this.
4) We definately need to ensure that the Space treaty is enforced by other nations, don't need any of those nations violate the treaty by claming ownership of any planet.
Eliminate social security for anyone under age 50. Ages 40-50 stop paying, all those of working age pay until age 35.
I would eliminate the SS for under 50, but I would not make them stop paying after 35, the more revenue available for SS the better. If there is a surplus in SS then this amount can be diverted into paying for the debt.
Reinstate the draft, all citizens of viable age are required to serve a min of 2 years in the military (clock doesn't start until after basic). Simultaneously change the benefit structure so that all the wonderful Vet bennies don't kick in for anyone doing just the min (assuming they aren't injured/maimed). Chalk it up as the cost for citizenship.
I wouldn't not reinstate the draft but I would make it mandatory that anyone over the age of 18 require to serve the min of 2 years of military service.
All illegal immigrants get automatic naturalization after a 4 year tenure in the service.
I think a better option would be to provide more working visa, let them come in and work. If they are done, then send them back home or make them reapply for another work visa.
Raise corp income tax on all multinational orgs on a sliding scale based on number of employees currently in the US. You move jobs overseas your tax bracket goes up.
If you do this you will guarantee that those who decide to outsource do it more quickly since the increase in tax will make them seek other profitable regions.
Most of the ideas I'd support have already been mentioned, but I'll reiterate them, along with one or two others:
1) (And this is number one because it's by far the most obvious) End the "War on Drugs," period. Heavy taxes on the drugs, instead. Mandatory drug testing, though, for those who wish to recieve government benefits, like Welfare. That is, you don't get to spend your welfare checks on Marijuana; that right is something to be earned as part of supporting yourself.
One side benefit of this is that we could stop burning the poppy fields of Afghanistan, their primary crop, which would help us not alienate the locals quite so much. Our War on Drugs is so inane that we pay Turkey to grow poppy for us (for medicinal purposes) rather than grow it ourselves. Why not pay the Afghanis instead?
1b) Do the same with prostitution; legalize and tax it.
2) It's too late to implement now, but we should have forced the new Iraqi government to finance the costs of the Iraq war over time with Oil Revenue. Not more than that, the goal here is not to make a profit, but enough to cover the cost to us of establishing the new government.
3) We should have bought banks, instead of bailing them out. For some banks, the amount of money that we paid them was more than their net worth; in these cases, the public should flat out own the banks. I'm not a fan of nationalized industries in general, but if you're going to be throwing untold billions of our money at the banks anyway, the public should just own the things.
4) Higher taxes. Not much more, but up to say 40% from 36 at the highest level. Take this difference and put *all* of it directly to paying off debt.
5) Nutritional meals, shots, regular checkups, vitamins etc. available to all children, completely free. Not only is this ethical, I would say, but will also save costs in the long run, as the costs of such are relatively small compared with the health costs that will be aleviated down the line by having the children grow up healthy. Could be done easily enough through the public school system.
That's it for now, I'll add more later, probably.
In terms of full military withdrawal, well, it's not something I can support, because I think we've given ourselves a moral obligation by initiating what we have. It would be wrong to leave those who have come to depend on us to fend for themselves; withdraw, certainly, but it must be done progressively.
yoginimama
02-04-2010, 03:57 PM
run for office, yogi. i'll vote for ya!
Woohoo!! I'll send you some lawn signs :)
But yeah, I agree--getting out of the rest of the world would save us literally trillions of dollars. Folding displaced personnel back into the economy would cost pennies by comparison. It's the smart thing to do, imho.
Oh, hey! I know what to do about the debt: declare a global jubilee. All debts, everywhere, canceled. We all start over. I can see where the Chinese might justifiably object to this, but I would just look at them and say, "You know you're never going to see any of the money we owe you anyway, because come on. There's no way. We're bankrupt. The thing is, if we go down, there's a high chance we'll take everyone else with us. On the other hand, if we all agree to start over, then everything stays the same except that some zeroes get erased."
As President :), my plan is to learn to say that in Mandarin Chinese, in hopes that the Chinese will be so impressed by my deep respect for their culture and language that they'll be too charmed to refuse.
So we won't have to worry about the debt anymore. As for space colonies and green power, those things will happen. The choice for Americans is, do we want to lead, or do we want to follow? As President... :) I will assume the former, and do what it takes to position us to lead the world on those fronts until the Blackwater men (acting in defense of the oil industry, of course) infiltrate the Secret Service and totally shoot me on international TV in a very dramatic moment. Hopefully it will be when I am at some kind of state dinner and wearing a beautiful gown by Vera Wang, because who wants to be assassinated looking anything less than her best? Also, boys, from the front, please, so that I go flying dramatically backwards, as opposed to doing a face-plant in the lasagna. Thank you.
yogi, you must've watched the last season of '24'. that's the plot in a nutshell. i couldn't tell who the villains were, though....
starting over lol!...perchance to sleep, to dream. when i combine this financial situation, with the mess around the world, the misguided actions of several large governments, and the apathy of the people, it almost seems that those wild 2012 predictions might have a chance...either good or bad? quien sabe?
INTJRyan
02-04-2010, 04:07 PM
"You know you're never going to see any of the money we owe you anyway, because come on. There's no way. We're bankrupt. The thing is, if we go down, there's a high chance we'll take everyone else with us. On the other hand, if we all agree to start over, then everything stays the same except that some zeroes get erased."
Besides, nothing says "We're cool, right?" like 5,000 nukes pointed in your direction. ;) Can I be the czar of czarism in the destined for assassination yogi admin?
yoginimama
02-04-2010, 04:13 PM
Besides, nothing says "We're cool, right?" like 5,000 nukes pointed in your direction. ;) Can I be the czar of czarism in the destined for assassination yogi admin?
You certainly can. Simply state how you will use the Office of Czarism to further the Yogi Admin goals of demilitarization, green power, renewed infrastructure, space colonies, single-payer health care, new jobs for displaced military and insurance-industry workers, and Simultaneous World Jubilee, and you're in.
hubcap
02-04-2010, 04:20 PM
The Federal Reserve owns half the national debt. That's not real debt. That's your left hand borrowing money from your right. So start with cutting your debt numbers in half.
The workings of the Federal Reserve has puzzled me for some time. What is the net effect of the Fed buying Treasury Securities? The Fed prints the money used to buy the Securities so it seems that we are just creating inflation when the Fed buys Securities. True or not?
Another issue that needs to be addressed - In the past, all the income from Social Security taxes which exceeded Social Security payments was actually used to buy Treasury Securities in order to finance govt spending. So when Social Security begins taking in less than it is spending the need for increased borrowing will be immediate.
The workings of the Federal Reserve has puzzled me for some time. What is the net effect of the Fed buying Treasury Securities? The Fed prints the money used to buy the Securities so it seems that we are just creating inflation when the Fed buys Securities. True or not?
They're creating money when they do quantitive easing. It may or may not contribute to inflation. Inflation is a change in price level. There has been deflationary pressure and QE is meant to mitigate it. Now, what will happen in actual practice with regards to inflation? I don't know, and anybody who claims with certainty to know is a charlatan.
Angel1
02-04-2010, 05:06 PM
The only low-hanging fruit that I can see is the Republican's War on Drugs. Ending the war would save 50 billion or so in direct costs, and you could earn a fairly significant amount of revenue by allowing competitive production of weed and coke and then taxing these goods to their current black market prices. But REPUBLICANS ARE OFFENDED BY PEOPLE SMOKING WEED SO WE CAN'T
First of all, cannabis and cocain are two different issues. Natural cannabis (cannabis not breed to have a stronger drug effect) should be legalized and taxed. Cocain should remain illegal. However, smoking should be declared illegal in all publically accessible areas (including within 20 feet of another persons private property).
Then I'd make Social Security a flat tax instead of a regressive one. No deductions, no caps, everyone pays the same chunk. Opposed by the Republicans.
When Social Security first formed, the tax got applied to 90% of the total American income. The tax should apply to 90% of every American's income. This means that for a 10% social security tax, you would pay 10% of $90,000 if your income is $100,000.
After that, the Republican's War in Iraq is delivering little benefit for enormous costs.
This war is already coming to an end. There is no need to reiterate that which is already a reality. I won't argue with you the value of the war...being an inappropriate thread to do that.
Then there's the Republican's Pill Bill that's just pure corporate payolla to big pharma. Since pharma was struggling anyways :rolleyes:
The bill's name, please?
Then there's the pointless Republican tax cuts of 2001. Cause cuttin' those taxes on the wealthiest people in history from 39 to 36 percent had a huge effect on economic efficiency :rolleyes:
Sounds like your bias against the Republicans is clouding your objectivity. If this is an inaccurate perception, then fix it with some objective observations. Numbers and other checkable facts are quite desirable to this end.
Then there's a massive amount of largely unnecessary military spending brought to you by the Republican party. We don't need 10+ active fleet carriers. We don't need a 2x1 advantage in air superiority fighters when we have large quality gaps. We don't need an army that's largely built to handle the USSR.
The US has just 5 Aircraft Carriers currently underway. If this is the number that are typically underway at any one time, then it's quite a reasonable number. It would not be that hard to believe that Aircraft Carriers are. At any rate, Navy vessels are built for the long term and last a long time (when not in a major war, the type of which we have not been in sense WWII), so it would also not be unreasonable that the Navy keeps some older carriers in service after they have been even as they plan for the further future by having additional ships ready. You might also want to consider just how much of the oceans the US Navy has a duty to defend; for your information, that's most of them (including the North Atlantic, Artic, and North Pacific oceans). I'm not against asking questions, but I am against making judgements before due deligence is done to investigate the circumstances.
...this clusterfuck was brought to you by the same charlatans who brought you the War in Iraq, the failed response to Hurricane Katrina, the financial deregulation mania, and the housing bubble.
I am going rip into you on Katrina. Mayor Nagin had the opportunity to load a passenger train full of people and get them out of New Orleans for free (because the company told them that they were moving their asset out of New Orleans and was willing to take people away for free). Mayor Nagin had the opportunity to use the cities school bus fleet to get people out of the city, but instead he let the buses be destroyed. Mayor Nagin's stupidity can only be blamed on himself. Governor Blanco had the opportunity to call the US Federal Government and tell them that they were allowed to start taking action in Louisiana before Katrina hit; she chose not to. After Katrina hit, Governor Blanco failed to immediately make sure that the Federal Government had appropriate permission to take action in Louisiana. Yes, FEMA had tremendous failures in New Orleans when they finally got there. The scope of the disaster would strain any organization to respond. FEMA's failures in this case were magnified by circumstances outside their controll. Compared to the failures of Mayor Nagin and Governor Blanco, the failure of FEMA is considerably less. When history reflects on this, it would be only fair for history to assign 80% or more of the blame to Mayor Nagin and Governor Blanco.
westcoaster
02-04-2010, 07:10 PM
My solutions to save America (that will never be implemented!)
1) Use computers to redraw congressional districts in each state, minimizing the perimeters of the aggregate districts to eliminate bullshit gerrymandering (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.).
This is, I feel, the single biggest driver of incompetence and radicalization in Congress. With present districts drawn up to be deep red or deep blue, the primaries are the real races for Congress, and in primaries where the parties don't need to worry about the general election, the radicals win out over the moderates, and even better >90% of the retard incumbents are re-elected every two years. A radicalized congress with nutjobs on the right and nutjobs on the left with very few moderates in the middle leads to our present House of Representatives ...
I used to think this would solve all of the problems of Congress, but that was back when the Senate behaved normally. Now, with them behaving as radically as the House (and Senate seats obviously not gerrymandered) I'm not sure optimizing Congressional districts will solve all our problems, but it will go a LONG way to fixing Congress.
2) For social security, raise the SS benefit age to whatever the cost-neutral age is today, and index it at that fixed % of expected average life expectancy so that it will continue to rise in future as we live longer.
SS was created in 1935, when the average life expectancy for babies born was 62 (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.), so a pension paying out at 65 was not expected to be major portion of the US budget since only the "outliers" would be receiving benefits. Today, average life expectancy is 78 and the average citizen can expect 13 years on the dole. This is unsustainable, period.
In theory, an old-age pension is a very good thing. However, not indexing the SS benefits age was the original sin of Social Security.
3) Flat income tax levied on all personal income above the poverty level, with no deductions at all, not even for mortgages. (Flat corporate tax too). Every jackass with a lobbyist distorts the tax law for their benefit, so an amendment to the Constitution eliminating all deductions takes care of this. I realize there are asymmetrical aspects of a flat income tax on lower income residents and believe the tax free income up to poverty level would take care of this.
4) Don't worry about the existing national debt. It will be inflated away over time. But we do need to balance the budget going forward. My SS fix and a flat tax recalibrating the overall tax rate to deficit neutral (ex Iraq/Afghanistan) would solve this and I suspect make the US a better country. Alas, only in my head...
Tristan
02-04-2010, 07:15 PM
We don't need 10+ active fleet carriers. We don't need a 2x1 advantage in air superiority fighters when we have large quality gaps. We don't need an army that's largely built to handle the USSR.The US has just 5 Aircraft Carriers currently underway. If this is the number that are typically underway at any one time, then it's quite a reasonable number. It would not be that hard to believe that Aircraft Carriers are. At any rate, Navy vessels are built for the long term and last a long time (when not in a major war, the type of which we have not been in sense WWII), so it would also not be unreasonable that the Navy keeps some older carriers in service after they have been even as they plan for the further future by having additional ships ready. You might also want to consider just how much of the oceans the US Navy has a duty to defend; for your information, that's most of them (including the North Atlantic, Artic, and North Pacific oceans). I'm not against asking questions, but I am against making judgements before due deligence is done to investigate the circumstances.
We'll be replacing our 10 Nimitz aircraft carriers with Gerald Ford carriers. I just looked at the Ford's wiki page, and it said the new class is costing $5 billion to develop and $9 billion to build each one. Most of our Nimitz carriers likely won't need to be replaced for many years, though. We could get this cash immediately by dismantling the federal Dept. of Education, which doesn't do anything. The Department's budget is currently $68 billion, which means two years would more than pay for the new fleet. Edit: I neglected that doing this could be a de facto tax increase, since some of the 68 billion would need to be raised by local governments to fund schools. Yet since the money is almost pure waste on the federal level, we probably wouldn't sustain a hit to education quality if we had just buried the money.
Aircraft carriers, superior jets, nuclear subs, and the nuclear warheads themselves are probably the main material reason there has been a state of relative calm on earth since World War II (another concern being displacement of monarchs & trade barriers by democracies and foreign investment). These are unstoppable military forces, the likes of which not seen in human history, and their existence deters aggression.
As for the size of the army, I'm in firm agreement with causa mortis. The active duty forces are too large, because big armies are outdated for the reasons above. I'm not an expert, but it would seem sensible to keep all of our military hardware intact and increase the size of the reserves (while decreasing active duty). If something really dire and unforeseen happens, we can bid for survival with the unused hardware, reserves, and draftees, but I think it's better to save the money in the meantime.
Causa Mortis
02-04-2010, 07:24 PM
The workings of the Federal Reserve has puzzled me for some time. What is the net effect of the Fed buying Treasury Securities? The Fed prints the money used to buy the Securities so it seems that we are just creating inflation when the Fed buys Securities. True or not?
It certainly creates money.
The "old school" definition of inflation as adhered to by Ron Paul and Co was "any growth in the money supply". In this sense, yes, this is inflation.
This is not how very many people define inflation today. Most define inflation as a decline in the purchasing power of money - stated very simply a coke costs .75 in 1990, 1.00 in 2000, 1.35 in 2010. In this sense of the term (which is the appropriate way to define it IMO) then the answer is "it depends on what happens with real productivity and with velocity".
So the money supply (if you include bank reserves) has basically doubled since 2008. Under normal circumstances, this would cause a surge in inflation and nominal GDP. However, since velocity (very roughly: the rate at which money changes hands) has plummeted, there's been significant unemployment and modest deflation.
Money Supply*Velocity=Price*Real Output
hubcap
02-04-2010, 07:29 PM
It certainly creates money.
The "old school" definition of inflation as adhered to by Ron Paul and Co was "any growth in the money supply". In this sense, yes, this is inflation.
This is not how very many people define inflation today. Most define inflation as a decline in the purchasing power of money - stated very simply a coke costs .75 in 1990, 1.00 in 2000, 1.35 in 2010. In this sense of the term (which is the appropriate way to define it IMO) then the answer is "it depends on what happens with real productivity and with velocity".
So the money supply (if you include bank reserves) has basically doubled since 2008. Under normal circumstances, this would cause a surge in inflation and nominal GDP. However, since velocity (very roughly: the rate at which money changes hands) has plummeted, there's been significant unemployment and modest deflation.
Money Supply*Velocity=Price*Real Output
That is pretty much the way I had understood it to work. The real inflationary effect won't be realized until the banks begin loaning the money to consumers and business which will then increase demand.
Night Runner
02-04-2010, 08:37 PM
Legalize and tax everything (or almost everything): gay marriages, drugs, prostitution, gambling (online and offline), etc.
Stop emulating the Roman empire in terms of our military and start over. Do away with the Army, minimize the Navy, keep the Air Force, get rid of Marines. Marines and the Army could be substituted with very well trained highly mobile special ops. As long as we don't try to take over any more countries, the Air Force, Predator drones and newly minted special ops can get things done just as well. Oh, and close the overseas bases, as well as do some serious analysis of Pentagon's budget. A lot of it is classified and yet it takes up a huge chunk of our annual budget.
I'm with yoginimama on tax loopholes: close them. :irked:
Replace the dinosaur that is our healthcare system with something much more cost-efficient. We spend more on healthcare per capita than any other country in the world, and it still sucks. That should save a giant chunk of our annual expenses right there.
Institute a flat tax for everyone, regardless of their tax bracket or income.
Invest in science and technological development - we should lead the world in those fields, not trail behind. More funding means more discoveries means more money.
Let genetics researchers do whatever the hell they want. A lot of current bans and restrictions are based on religion and/or ideology. Morally questionable? Sure. However, the results may be well worth it.
Patch up our immigration system. Or, better yet, toss it aside and start all over. New Zealand has the right idea: don't admit just anybody, but screen all immigrants and ensure that they'd have a set of skills/qualifications to contribute. Needless to say, we should secure the Mexican border (which would also provide the much-needed jobs :thumbsup:)
freeeekyyy
02-05-2010, 01:23 PM
Cut out unnecessary programs. Adjust tax rates to optimal levels. Use surplus to pay off debt. Simple.
Causa Mortis
02-05-2010, 01:26 PM
That is pretty much the way I had understood it to work. The real inflationary effect won't be realized until the banks begin loaning the money to consumers and business which will then increase demand.
Sort of. The banks loaning again will, up to a point, decrease unemployment and increase output. Its not likely that inflationary until unemployment begins to approach its natural rate (5-6%)
But given Bernake's highly unique approach - growing the money supply by picking winners and losers, throwing money at them, and then paying interest on reserves - he's changed so many variables that it becomes nearly impossible to make any sort of real guess about what's going to happen.
freeeekyyy
02-05-2010, 01:41 PM
Speaking of Bernanke, he's an INTJ...a stupid, overconfident INTJ.
Sort of. The banks loaning again will, up to a point, decrease unemployment and increase output. Its not likely that inflationary until unemployment begins to approach its natural rate (5-6%)
The assumption here that latent demand for loans is being held at bay by banks' unwillingness to loan. Business won't likely expand until they see an increase in consumer demand, which may or may not appear. It seems that Japan has been pushing on that string for decade.
Brian125
02-07-2010, 05:29 PM
I'm in favor of letting the government default and die. We really don't need it.
Paul Siraisi
02-08-2010, 07:33 PM
When Nero heard barbarians were threatening the empire, it is said his plan was to set fire to Rome, and then release wild beasts into the streets to prevent the population from putting out the fire. Ingenious!
Ok, not being helpful.
---------- Post added 02-08-2010 at 06:46 PM ----------
Cut Medicare--go totally low tech. Break the back of high tech medicine.
Accellerate fusion research by a factor of 10.
Geminii
02-09-2010, 06:11 PM
Cost reduction:
- Scrap the entire defense budget . The US doesn't have anyone it needs to militarily defend against. Keep a mobile military engineer and emergency response corps around.
- No tax breaks for religious institutions.
- No tax breaks for crops which aren't being used to produce healthy foods which actually get to the majority of the populace. Complete review of all agricultural subsidies.
- Allow prostitution to be legalised, licensed, and regulated. Cops don't want to waste their time and money chasing up clean brothels and neither does anyone else.
- Stop interfering with the politics of other countries, and stop funding them for anything other than humanitarian aid.
- ADD IN universal health care and preventative medicine. It's an upfront cost, but the benefits are a healthier, more lucrative workforce.
- Homeland Security can bite the big one, too. It's done nothing but irritate the crap out of people.
Income generation:
- I'd be willing to look at having the BATF administer and regulate legalised drugs.
- Drop international trade embargoes on outgoing goods to anywhere. The whole thing with Cuba is just DUMB.
There are a bunch of things I'd also like to repair and/or implement, but that's additional spending at this point, even if most of them will be long-term profitable (like fixing education in general), and beyond the scope of addressing the debt.
Tristan
02-10-2010, 10:43 AM
When Nero heard barbarians were threatening the empire, it is said his plan was to set fire to Rome, and then release wild beasts into the streets to prevent the population from putting out the fire. Ingenious!
Ok, not being helpful.
Not being helpful? Au contraire. You used the past to predict the future, and summarized the post immediately following your own!
Geminii
02-11-2010, 03:00 AM
Would be more accurate if Rome had already been on fire. :)
Zsych
02-11-2010, 02:42 PM
Well, major cost cutting across the board would be good... after analyzing what actually is overhead. Then you can try to streamline processes as far as possible and actually cut programs that are judged to not be beneficial, or beneficial enough.
Beyond that - I think the entire infrastructure has become crummy. How everything is done and what is the right way - is a question that needs to be applied to everything. But also: Given what is wrong, what needs to be fixed first?
Assuming you have that problem fixed or being fixed, the other big issue is increasing income.. taxes might help, but in the long run, I think the US economy is headed for the gutter anyway.
Overall - I think it would take damn near miracles to restore this country in any long term sense.
dan888
02-11-2010, 05:34 PM
This fiscal changes needed have already been mentioned, raising taxes, closing tax loopholes, reducing military spending, reducing healthcare costs, etc. The problem is political will and the ability to execute.
My solutions:
1) Benevolent Dictator. I nominate myself. But if that isn't possible...
2) Campaign Finance Reform. Corporations aren't people ffs. Need to get the special interests out of politics (not only corporations, but also unions).
3) Competent government. Make salaries for important government employees competitive with private sector.
4) Viable alternative political parties from the Dems and Republicans
Zsych
02-11-2010, 05:44 PM
Intelligent, Competent, Experienced, Charismatic, and Benevolent dictator :P
In other words, you need some super amazing person who is into self-sacrifice :P
Scatterbrane
02-12-2010, 06:06 AM
2) Campaign Finance Reform. Corporations aren't people ffs. Need to get the special interests out of politics (not only corporations, but also unions).
Make our own special interests groups, and collectively buy politicians with the aim of reducing the effects of special interest groups. Fight fire with fire.
3) Competent government. Make salaries for important government employees competitive with private sector.
I might add that the salaries would also need to reflect the relevant credentials of individual employees.
4) Viable alternative political parties from the Dems and Republicans
The starting costs are too high for this to be likely to happen. This is a problem related to the sheer size of the U.S., harder to fight ingrained elements due to their sheer power they wield in absolute terms. These parties need to be chipped away until they're of a manageable size.
LaoTzu
02-12-2010, 09:19 AM
OK so who is on board?!
Count me in!
INTJRyan
02-12-2010, 09:34 AM
Count me in!
Woot. I got LaoTzu on board...I mean Vice President LaoTzu. ;)
Zsych
02-15-2010, 06:28 AM
I think what a solution would really need, would be us being let loose to fix things. Figure out individual problems and find solutions to make the system more efficient.
We may not want to be in positions of authority, but who else is going to do it? :P
Night Runner
02-15-2010, 03:48 PM
I think what a solution would really need, would be us being let loose to fix things. Figure out individual problems and find solutions to make the system more efficient
But how would you reconcile viable solutions that are completely incompatible with one another? Methinks you'd end up with a bigger circus on your hands than the good ol' U.S. Congress. ;)
jesse
03-01-2010, 08:36 AM
The quick and easy abstract answer to the question would be to identify the biggest costs that are fueling budget underruns and the need to keep on increasing debt. What should really be done is to minimize government infrastructure, get rid of politicians and lobbyists who are happy to serve any master necessary as long as it keeps them warming up seats in both the house and congress.
Military and paramilitary entanglements abroad such as the amount of military bases, military operations and the war on drugs are certainly items I would personally slash with a heavy hand. I though the point of having armed forces was to protect national sovereignty from outside attacks instead of setting up foreign bases for preventative measures. Times like these especially require putting resources and effort into fixing dire problems rather than running around in a wild goose chase after people considered as the "baddies".
In terms of economics, a complete overhaul and simplification of the tax system. Someone already mentioned a flat tax rate and closing all tax loopholes, this is something I agree with. Probably something along the lines of making the tax system so easy and simple that it fits on a post card and essentially permits no deductions. Since the budget deficits and debt are out of control, it probably would require a fairly high flat rate tax percentage, say 25-35% on income without differentiating this as being capital gains or salary. Combine this with a heavily reduced amount of government programs, staff and other "fluff". Essentially this would look like what is sometimes called a night watchman state meaning only the necessary apparatus for maintaining security and stability (courts, police, armed forces, etc) and the political machinery where decisions are made are to be kept.
Getting the system to these bare bones would require a hell lot of libertarian-minded congresspeople or a highly competent "dictator" until debt management is at a reasonable and controllable level.
SS and Medicare are tough questions because if you just go ahead and limit it to certain people and then cutting many others out, you're going to have a mob out for blood, at least politically. For one, social security should only be used to fund what it says instead of being some kind of internal piggy bank for any governmental organization to dip into when on lean times.
Randwulff
03-01-2010, 02:09 PM
First off, I'd employ our prison community. There are about three million prisoners in the US. My guess is that about 2 million of those can work. The vast majority would probably only be able to do menial jobs and only under stringent supervision. Some however could probably do skilled work with rather minimal supervision. Their paychecks would not be given to them, they would be given to the federal bureau or whatever that hires them out. Part of that paycheck would be used to fund their prison and their food and their security, et cetera, part of it would be taxed as a normal paycheck is (perhaps prisoners would have an additional tax to pay as well), and whats left over would be set aside for them to access when they are released. Naturally, this policy would probably result in an increased prison escape rate. The only thing to do about that is what we do now, hunt them down and drag them back. Yes, this would essentially be slavery. They would be forced to work. But if I have to work to eat and keep a roof over my head, I think convicts should as well. Taxing 2 million laborers working at $10 an hour would bring in about 2 and a half billion dollars per year, and at the same time the cost of maintaining our prisons would fall drastically, as the inmates would support their prisons with a portion of their paycheck.
I'd legalize Marijuana and allow large corporations to manufacture it. I would tax its sale pretty harshly. I'm hesitant to put forward a number for that however. Not only would this raise a huge amount of revenue for the government, but it would also do major damage, possibly mortal damage, to many of America's violent gangs. Prison population would be drastically reduced (which sort of interferes with my previous idea, but I think it's worth it).
Someone mentioned putting more controls on what people can and cannot buy with foodstamps. I like this idea. This could free up boatloads of money wasted on Twinkies and Lindt chocolate.
I'd lower benefits (salary etc) to high ranking federal officials. This wouldn't save a huge amount of money, but it would be symbolic of our efforts and the seriousness of the crisis and would be very good public relations-wise if I was trying to put reforms like these through.
I'd slash about a billion government programs. It's impossible to be specific here because there are so many, and probably 95% of them I won't have even heard of until I take office.
I'd withdraw our military from Afghanistan and Iraq within half of a year. And that would be an actual deadline, not a guideline. If Afghanistan isn't stable by then, sorry, but tough luck, Afghanis. Looks like you're going to be living under the Taliban again. Overall, I'd aim to cut military spending by a third, which would be about $230 billion.
The terminology escapes me, but banks have a limit to how much they can lend. Right now they can lend like 25 dollars for every one dollar they actually have. This is absurd, as a bank can be crushed if two or three major debtors default. I'd lower this probably to 2 or 3 dollars.
jhbowden79
03-01-2010, 11:42 PM
Here's the ENTJ solution to the national debt/government spending-- move election day to the same day as tax day, April 15th.
Problem solved.
Krazy P
03-02-2010, 03:15 PM
Sovereign debt problems are a natural aftermath of a financial crisis. It will be bad and it will last a long time and there are no "solutions".
Government needs to spend less which means that all of us have to lower our expectations of all the "goodies" we expect to get from the government.
As far as Katrina goes - the "failure" is a complete and total myth.
The response by government to Katrina was the fastest and biggest in the history of man. Because some reporters couldn't get hotel rooms, it became a "crisis".
Popular Mechanics completed a thorough analysis of Katrina with some very good next time opportunities. THat is great. THey also show how false the prevailing conventional wisdom is about what really happened.
100,000 emergency personnel arrived at the scene within three days of the landfall. Dozens of National Guard and Coast Guard were running rescues within 2 hours of landfall. By the end of the week, over 100,000 people had been rescued. Computer simulations of death tolls for a hurricane like Katrina hitting where it did put the casualties at 60,000. Total actual deaths 1077.
If you have an interest, you can read about that here:
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