Honduras time bomb

[darynthe]

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras – Honduras' deposed leader is sleeping on an air mattress. His "roommates" have not bathed, shaved or changed their clothes in three days. Tap water is scarce and dinner is limited to dry biscuits or rice and beans.

Daily life has become increasingly challenging for ousted President Manuel Zelaya and his die-hard loyalists since they took shelter Monday at the Brazilian Embassy in the Honduran capital — the latest front in Zelaya's fight to be reinstated.
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What will happen here? THe situation is not sustainable for Zelaya and his supporters inside this embassy. If the embassy is taken over with a raid it would cause an international issue as embassies are almost sacred in international law.

The whole world is against the new president. Even the population is against him. However all the other powers support him just as the military. A intervention of other countries is unlikely however. How can the pressure from the US or UN can be excerced without looking meddling?
What is the most likely outcome here?

[jesse]

The Honduran political crisis is a hard case and it's not made any easier by Zelaya playing the cowboy hero he seems to see himself as. It is one thing fighting for what one believes, but there is a point where it becomes a messy suicide mission which will not really solve anything. He should count his blessings for not being executed on the spot instead of being swiftly forced into Costa Rica.

I am not denying that foul play has not been involved because everyone involved has their own account of the story to tell. Apparently the overlord gods of the Hondurian Supreme Court believed Zelaya to be a threat because he was planning to get a referendum asking for a civil mandate to possibly remove the limitation of only being able to stand in one term as president.

The picture I get from the Yahoo news article is that the government and its military and police force are doing a hard bid to pressure Zelaya and hassle supporters very likely because he is seen as a threat to the established order. Of course the nation will be against the interim president appointee Roberto Micheletti because he was sworn in because that's how their rules are laid out if and when a sitting president is removed. I've heard that Zelaya was not even overly popular as president no matter how it's been spun in the news.

It is my view that international intereference will not solve the problem by spewing the fastidious rhetoric of long live democracy, freedom and whatever else other buzz words they've been dropping lately. I did some quick research on the matter and this link (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.) titled "They're torturing me, Honduras' Manuel Zelaya claims" does not exactly sound like Zelaya is sane or stable.

[RBM]

I've heard that Zelaya was not even overly popular as president no matter how it's been spun in the news.

If your source is not the 'news' then what is it ?

[jikin]

Even the population is against him.

Not quite.

The rest of the world may not like him, but the majority of the people in the country do and don't want Zelaya back.

Unfortunately, here in the states (and I'm sure most other countries) we only hear what our news agencies and government tell us.

I have a close friend who's son works as a missionary in Hondorus. The news inthe country itself, as well as what he hears directly from the people he works with is entirely different than what we hear. The protests that we see are actually smaller than the peaceful gatherings in support of the new guy. When it comes down to it Zelaya's removal was legal according to their consitutional laws.

I'll search though my emails to dig out the translated articles from the country that she's been sending me for the last few months. It's nice to hear the other side of a story.

[darynthe]

Not quite.

The rest of the world may not like him, but the majority of the people in the country do and don't want Zelaya back.

Unfortunately, here in the states (and I'm sure most other countries) we only hear what our news agencies and government tell us.

I have a close friend who's son works as a missionary in Hondorus. The news inthe country itself, as well as what he hears directly from the people he works with is entirely different than what we hear. The protests that we see are actually smaller than the peaceful gatherings in support of the new guy. When it comes down to it Zelaya's removal was legal according to their consitutional laws.

I'll search though my emails to dig out the translated articles from the country that she's been sending me for the last few months. It's nice to hear the other side of a story.


I just don't get how asking for a referendum can be illegal or be worth a destitution. That cannot really legal anywhere. How can a constitution have a law against being changed???
It is completely unreasonable.

No matter what was the question, it is up to the people to say yes or not. In my opinion the only legal causes of destitution would be corruption, crime, grave illnes and permanent mental impairment.

Secondly, I could understand if the people ousted him themselves. But for what I see it was rather the old golden power. God knows that Honduras has been like a big slave plantation for the US companies for hundreds of years. It was totally insane over there. Not your usual country. Private interests was all that mattered.

I have been following this case in the Ecuadorian news in Spanish and all they report is the same as the news in yahoo.

[jesse]

I just don't get how asking for a referendum can be illegal or be worth a destitution. That cannot really legal anywhere. How can a constitution have a law against being changed???
It is completely unreasonable.

No matter what was the question, it is up to the people to say yes or not. In my opinion the only legal causes of destitution would be corruption, crime, grave illnes and permanent mental impairment.

Laws are applied when it best suits those in power in many developing nations, this is nothing new. Having a military coup or a supreme court try to ban and arrest those in power is especially frequent in a country like Turkey. It happens because the military and the courts see themselves as protectors of Atatürk's legacy and values thus they are not restrained and have their authority limited.

It's silly comparing a Eurasian and predominantly muslim country to a Central Latin American state, but there are these sorts of similarities going on at the state institution levels. Assuming Zelaya was truly distrusted and had extremely low popular support all the while trying to get a referendum through allowing him to stand for re-election, it does make some sense as to why he was ousted. They could have simply impeached him and call for new presidential elections and move on.

Secondly, I could understand if the people ousted him themselves. But for what I see it was rather the old golden power. God knows that Honduras has been like a big slave plantation for the US companies for hundreds of years. It was totally insane over there. Not your usual country. Private interests was all that mattered.

I have been following this case in the Ecuadorian news in Spanish and all they report is the same as the news in yahoo.

Change does not happen overnight and it's shameful seeing exploitation from the past and perhaps even in the present because for one it's at odds with my own views of liberty and voluntary exchange of goods at the going market rate. Coercion and enslavement are never part of my views and they are completely unacceptable.

[LordCorbin]

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How can the pressure from the US or UN can be excerced without looking meddling?


Why would the US meddle in Honduran political affairs?

[darynthe]

Why would the US meddle in Honduran political affairs?

Exactly. But they meddle everywhere so why would this be any different?

[LordCorbin]

No, not really. Although I wish the US would stop sticking it's fingers into so many other peoples pies.
I wonder though, what effect this will have on the region if the situation worsens? I am not well versed in that regions politics. Anyone care to weigh in?

[Hamburglar]

Some have come to see the situation as not unlike releasing a defendant accused of crimes for which the arrest was botched: You must let him go, but you have the sinking feeling you'll be seeing him again soon.Guardian (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.)

A fairly astute observation.

Zelaya was illegally exiled. But he was firing generals like there was no tomorrow-for declining to carry out illegal orders. Orders deemed unconstitutional by the Honduran Supreme Court. From my understanding they were supposed to detain him not exile...so there is really no excuse for that.

[RBM]

What does Honduras have for natural resources ?

[Mader]

I am not a student of Central American politics so this is the only info I have, and I realize that the source may make many folks question the "side of the aisle" of the info. I apologize for no links - I have not mastered that part of computing yet.


An interview with the current President on FoxNews (Greta Van S).

the current president said that the Constitution allows only one term for a president, this was passed in the 80's.

the current president said that Zelaya was trying to change the constitution to allow him to stay in the office - first step to be President-for-life.

Again, on FoxNews, guests including Karl Rove (Bush administration) and former UN Ambassador John Bolton say that the US support for Zelaya is contrary to the Honduran Constitution, which was written to prevent Dictators and Presidents-for-life in an effort to protect the people from corruption.

[LevBron]

From To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.):

Honduras 1912 Marines protect U.S. economic interests
Honduras 1919 Marines land during election campaign
Honduras 1924-25 Landed twice during election strife
Honduras 1982-90 Maneuvers help build bases near borders

The US will help Zelaya if it is in its interests. It probably isn't. Having generals, who attended training in the US, in power is probably in its interests. Besides, once a politician or news program throws the "socialist" or "aspiring dictator" label at a foreign leader, the vast majority of Americans will be against that person and the government will not assist him.

[Hamburglar]

Lev-
The generals are not running the country. Just like in the US they have a plan of succession if something happens to the President. The President of the Congress - Micheletti - assumed power when the Congress, Supreme Court, and Military agreed to oust Zelaya. Zelaya, if you've been studying the story really was overstepping the letter and spirit of the constitution for firing military leaders who believed his policy of holding a referendum balot during the election to extend the term limit of the Presidency was illegal/unconstitutional.

[Ray9]

In my day we called these "banana republics". If you don't like the government, wait a minute.

[Talkahuano]

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What will happen here? THe situation is not sustainable for Zelaya and his supporters inside this embassy. If the embassy is taken over with a raid it would cause an international issue as embassies are almost sacred in international law.

The whole world is against the new president. Even the population is against him. However all the other powers support him just as the military. A intervention of other countries is unlikely however. How can the pressure from the US or UN can be excerced without looking meddling?
What is the most likely outcome here?

Ugh, I hate the media. I'm from Honduras so let me set this straight. CNN, BBC, FOX, all of them have it wrong. They've been playing up little details as if they were HUGE DRAMA OMG.

Zelaya got ousted because he broke constitutional law. He wanted a referendum to change the constitution, to allow him to be elected for more than one term. He had Hugo Chavez backing him and *delivering the ballot boxes to Honduras from Venezuela.*
The man is notoriously known for doing bad shit all the time. He stole millions upon millions of dollars out of the national treasury just to go travel and have a fun time. He hasn't paid teacher salaries in over a year, and is expecting teachers to go on working without pay. He has made no attempt to improve infrastructure, crack down on gangs, or do anything that is in any way useful to the country.
So when he showed up with his referendum idea, which is unconstitutional, the government said no. The supreme court said no. The military said hell no. So he went ahead with the referendum anyway. Congress asked the military to step in for a while and kick the guy out. Then the military returned control of the country to Congress and the Speaker was made temporary president. There will be elections in November for a new president.

Most people, aside from some loud supporters, are against Zelaya. And there weren't any riots in the country until the guy managed to sneak back in. Then his stupid supporters went crazy, and we got bad news from the country again. <.<



Talkahuano added to this post, 3 minutes and 22 seconds later...

What does Honduras have for natural resources ?

Mainly fruit. Lots of bananas (the main export), oranges, pineapple, papaya.
There's also coffee and I think some cane sugar.
There are mining resources but they're not exploited. There's some beautiful beaches. The Bay Islands attract thousands of tourists each month, IIRC. Crystal-clear waters. :)





Talkahuano added to this post, 4 minutes and 40 seconds later...

Guardian (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.)

A fairly astute observation.

Zelaya was illegally exiled. But he was firing generals like there was no tomorrow-for declining to carry out illegal orders. Orders deemed unconstitutional by the Honduran Supreme Court. From my understanding they were supposed to detain him not exile...so there is really no excuse for that.

Agreed. He should have been imprisoned and formally impeached. And then kicked out.
He's trouble. As long as he's in the country, no matter how jailed, he will cause trouble.





Talkahuano added to this post, 7 minutes and 12 seconds later...

Why would the US meddle in Honduran political affairs?
That's another thing most Hondurans are having trouble understanding. We've had military coups before, tons of them, and other countries never cared. Why are they caring about this now?

[eagleseven]

That's another thing most Hondurans are having trouble understanding. We've had military coups before, tons of them, and other countries never cared. Why are they caring about this now?
Because Zelaya is Chavez's man, and Chavez makes a lot of noise, internationally.

I think your post more-or-less ends this debate.