That thing called 'The Peak Oil Movement'

[RBM]

Dr Chu is on record with some more statements as a result of his participation atEIA's (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.) 2009 conference.

I have been following developments in what is generically called 'The Peak Oil Movement', for a couple years via the 'intertubes'.

In that short time there have been 2 separate events of shortages of gas in the US. Except for the embargo of '70's, that had never happened before. Following is a link with excerpts of some of who I identify as members of 'The Peak Oil Movement'.

Neal Rauhauser's "Replanting America's transit desert" (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.):

The presence of mass transit, whether local or long haul, simply makes towns and cities livable. That is going to become increasingly important, as we're in a time where a recent prophecy is going to come to pass.

I don't speak of any supernatural explanation of world events, but rather petroleum geologist Marion King Hubbert's 1956 pronouncement than U.S. oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970, with "the global peak coming about half a century from now". Hubbert was a tad optimistic about his predictions; the U.S. peak was in the spring of 1971 and the apparent global peak in May of 2005 might have been eclipsed by production in the winter of 2008..

Even if we did dodge the peak oil bullet for a full three years the fate of the world's five largest supergiant oil fields is certain. Ghawar, Saudi Arabia's four million barrel a day cash cow, is over 90% consumed and seawater forms an ever increasing percentage of the output as the field nears the time when it will "water out".

The rest of the piece continues to be written at a level a layman like myself can readily grasp. It is well worth a read to get a sense of the latest in The Peak Oil Movement.

The preeminent web site of The Peak Oil Movement is The Oil Drum. (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.)

[JeffersonFawkes]

Its a much more well documented and scientifically backed reason to go green than say... global warming.

[RBM]

Its a much more well documented and scientifically backed reason to go green than say... global warming.

Well, that's arguable.

Regardless as Bit Tooth Energy (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.) notes:

There is no doubt that the Administration has changed, from the presence of “the hockey stick” curve in Dr Chu’s Keynote Address through all three of the Plenary Papers, we, as an audience, were left in no doubt that Climate Change and the problems of carbon, are now a major part of the new agenda.

[Visum]

This is where my opinion lays on peak oil.

Part of the story is found over at RollingStone, as well as accompanied with video. For the full story go here. (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.)
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The Great American Bubble Machine (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.)

Matt Taibbi on how Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression

MATT TAIBBIPosted Jul 02, 2009 8:38 AM


"The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it's everywhere. The world's most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.
Any attempt to construct a narrative around all the former Goldmanites in influential positions quickly becomes an absurd and pointless exercise, like trying to make a list of everything. What you need to know is the big picture: If America is circling the drain, Goldman Sachs has found a way to be that drain — an extremely unfortunate loophole in the system of Western democratic capitalism, which never foresaw that in a society governed passively by free markets and free elections, organized greed always defeats disorganized democracy.
They achieve this using the same playbook over and over again. The formula is relatively simple: Goldman positions itself in the middle of a speculative bubble, selling investments they know are crap. Then they hoover up vast sums from the middle and lower floors of society with the aid of a crippled and corrupt state that allows it to rewrite the rules in exchange for the relative pennies the bank throws at political patronage. Finally, when it all goes bust, leaving millions of ordinary citizens broke and starving, they begin the entire process over again, riding in to rescue us all by lending us back our own money at interest, selling themselves as men above greed, just a bunch of really smart guys keeping the wheels greased. They've been pulling this same stunt over and over since the 1920s — and now they're preparing to do it again, creating what may be the biggest and most audacious bubble yet."

[Mader]

I believe we will find oil harder to find.
I believe it will become more expensive to extract and process.

I don't think there is enough trust between all the oil producing states (Russia and the Middle East, for example) to create one great conspiracy. If we were talking about modern all-american companies, then maybe.

Oil is a finite product. Finding new ways to produce energy is a necessary goal.

[Visum]

I believe we will find oil harder to find.
I believe it will become more expensive to extract and process.

I don't think there is enough trust between all the oil producing states (Russia and the Middle East, for example) to create one great conspiracy. If we were talking about modern all-american companies, then maybe.

Oil is a finite product. Finding new ways to produce energy is a necessary goal.

I agree, oil is finite. However, it is still subject to supply and demand. Market manipulation can occur in many ways. One of those is by creating hype and a false bull market where suckers like the average Joe don't understand. They will enter the market and the market makers and professionals will simply sell into them, thus taking their money. I hope you don't believe that the market is random and just goes up and down on it's own. You need to understand that speculation in the US does affect global oil prices. Those oil producing nations could simply maintain their output, while speculators in the US bid the price up until the bubble pops. Too much money chasing too little commodity. We have laws deterring this, but apparently Goldman obtained permission to circumvent the law and in effect manipulate the price.

[RBM]

Finding new ways to produce energy is a necessary goal.

The laws of thermodynamics constrain the achievement of that goal. The only place to left to look is in the quantum physics knowledge gap.

While the market make no difference to geology, it does determine the order of events leading to supply. The interesting aspect to the Taibbi piece is once again the profit for energy is going to a middleman and not to the developing sector. That has market consequences. As a result the argument could be made that the market manipulation is the worst case consequence for energy supply.

Right now Natural Gas is the 'answer' to energy supply. We will see if that 'kicks the can down the road' or not.

[Ool]

The laws of thermodynamics constrain the achievement of that goal. The only place to left to look is in the quantum physics knowledge gap.


How about in the "everything altogether cannot have a reason because there is by definition nothing that could have caused it" gap?

Also we don't even use a two billionth of the sunlight that our star blasts away into deep space. Before we wax philosophical about the futility of eternal energy supply, how about securing it for the next few billion years and then see what happens next...?

[RBM]

How about in the "everything altogether cannot have a reason because there is by definition nothing that could have caused it" gap?

LOL ! you'll have to translate that one for me.

You can accuse me of 'waxing philosophical' since I didn't post any links, so here's a mess of them by some serious rigorous number crunchers, Robert Rapier (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.). The tag for that URL is 'solar power' at RR's; you might have to dig a bit, it'll take a bit more work than your hand-waving "two billionth of the sunlight that our star blasts away into deep space", to get to the Arizona link, which is a realistic look at what can be accomplished.

The feasibility is just one of several major hurdles.

[Ool]

LOL ! you'll have to translate that one for me.

The idea is that no new energy can be created, and yet the energy around us exists ultimately for no reason.

That pretty much throws the absoluteness of the law of entropy out the window...

[RBM]

The idea is that no new energy can be created, and yet the energy around us exists ultimately for no reason.

That pretty much throws the absoluteness of the law of entropy out the window...

A consequence of this law is that energy cannot be created nor destroyed. The only thing that can happen with energy in an isolated system is that it can change form,

the absoluteness of the law of entropy

That absoluteness has been violated in the lab - it's called the fluctuation theorem (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.):

We experimentally demonstrate the fluctuation theorem, which predicts appreciable and measurable violations of the second law of thermodynamics for small systems over short time scales, by following the trajectory of a colloidal particle captured in an optical trap that is translated relative to surrounding water molecules. From each particle trajectory, we calculate the entropy production/consumption over the duration of the trajectory and determine the fraction of second law–defying trajectories. Our results show entropy consumption can occur over colloidal length and time scales.

Much of science doesn't recognize this result. I have been in dialog with those that claim absoluteness even in the face of the above citation.

[themuzicman]

This isn't a reason to go green.

It is a reason to research any other energy sources. I do know of a couple of plants that are producing oil from animal byproducts. Not sure how much they can actually expand that to produce, however.

[RBM]

This isn't a reason to go green.

It is a reason to research any other energy sources. I do know of a couple of plants that are producing oil from animal byproducts. Not sure how much they can actually expand that to produce, however.

'Green' is a term that is open to be whatever one wants it to be. Until I have some grip on a speaker's context of 'green', it's not worthwhile to engage.

Dig into the details. Look for energy audits, learn physics;-) If you don't do any of those things, then at least read Robert Rapier.

[SeaCzar]

I'd leave "green" out of the discussion as well, and look at supply and demand for energy, not just oil. If petroleum is on the wane, and prices go up, which in time they surely will, alternatives will come about.

[themuzicman]

'Green' is a term that is open to be whatever one wants it to be. Until I have some grip on a speaker's context of 'green', it's not worthwhile to engage.

"Green" means the enviormentalist wacko group. The one that wants to (and is about to) wreck the US economy. It has little to do with energy supply.

Dig into the details. Look for energy audits, learn physics;-) If you don't do any of those things, then at least read Robert Rapier.

I'm familiar with some of the details. Unfortunately, oil is an excellent and (for the most part) stable source of energy.

[RBM]

"Green" means the enviormentalist wacko group.

I'm familiar with some of the details.

Your first comments bellies your second. :-(

Have a good day.

[JonD]

Peakonomics ignores the capacity for alternatives.

[RBM]

Peakonomics ignores the capacity for alternatives.

Let's consider the alternatives in light of crude oil, as a measure of comparison.

In it's (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.) monthly energy outlook, the EIA increased its 2009 global oil demand projection to 83.85 million barrel per day (bpd), up 170,000 bpd from its June estimate of 83.68 million bpd. World oil demand this year is still well below 2008 levels of 85.41 million bpd.

So, the new demand projection is 83.85 MMbpd. Multiply that times 5.8 million BTU (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.) for world demand in BTU. The reader can do the calculation if interested.

That is where 'THE BAR' sits for alternatives.

In practice, of course THE BAR is lowered ... some.

[SirJac]

Well, that's arguable.

Regardless as Bit Tooth Energy (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.) notes:

There is no doubt that the Administration has changed, from the presence of “the hockey stick” curve in Dr Chu’s Keynote Address through all three of the Plenary Papers, we, as an audience, were left in no doubt that Climate Change and the problems of carbon, are now a major part of the new agenda.



In all fairness, the hockey stick curve was competely discredited when it was found that the algorithm used to create it would make hockey sticks out of random data.
link (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.)

[JonD]

Let's consider the alternatives in light of crude oil, as a measure of comparison.



So, the new demand projection is 83.85 MMbpd. Multiply that times 5.8 million BTU (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.) for world demand in BTU. The reader can do the calculation if interested.

That is where 'THE BAR' sits for alternatives.

In practice, of course THE BAR is lowered ... some.

You didn't consider the alternatives, you just talked about demand for oil.

[RBM]

In all fairness, the hockey stick curve was competely discredited when it was found that the algorithm used to create it would make hockey sticks out of random data.
link (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.)

Bit Tooth Energy's comment was more about policy than the science. He does mention some areas of interest on his blog:

I expect to talk a little bit about climate change issues as the post goes forward. With the change in Administration, and the emphasis by the President-elect on a blanket acceptance of the global warming premise, signified in part by his choice for the energy portfolios in the Cabinet, it is going to be hard to be able to distinguish between the two.

This author focuses on policy and that's where I find value in reading him. I don't know his view and 'the hockey stick', but I suspect you could sure post on his blog.

The hockey stick isn't an interest of mine, at any rate.





RBM added to this post, 232 minutes and 9 seconds later...

"Green" means the enviormentalist wacko group. The one that wants to (and is about to) wreck the US economy. It has little to do with energy supply.

HeHeHe. Look out, it's spreeeeeading - Now there are Welsh wacko's:

Welsh terraced houses to become eco homes (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.)



Beautiful pic at the link.

...
Margaret Minhinnick, director of Sustainability Wales, welcomed the pilot scheme. “Solid-wall terrace housing is one of the biggest challenges in Wales in terms of improving the energy efficiency of our dwellings – so this project, if successful, will show an exciting way forward,” she said. The remodelling of the interiors will also make these properties more attractive to the housing market and reduce the potential for derelict housing stock.
...
Richard Roberts, director of Rio Architects, the Cardiff-based firm which is responsible for the design of the revamped homes, said: “Demolition of the existing buildings was not an option; neither was papering over the cracks. Instead, the primary drivers behind this pilot scheme are to significantly enhance the energy performance of the existing terrace properties, whilst improving the living standards of current and future inhabitants.

“Our design significantly reconfigures the interior of the houses, allowing the maximisation of daylight whilst harnessing the wonderful panoramic views of the Valley.”

The scheme is part of an ambitious multi-million pound programme to improve energy efficiency in homes across the Heads of the Valleys and develop Europe's first low carbon zone.

Trying to make a house energy efficient after the fact is surely the most expensive way to go vs from a site design perspective.

[Visum]

Sorry about my other post about oil prices, I mistakenly thought we were talking about peak oil prices.

Trying to make a house energy efficient after the fact is surely the most expensive way to go vs from a site design perspective.

Being a licensed builder, I agree. They need to update the electrical system and windows, check/add attic insulation. Re-vamping the floor plan to capture sun energy sounds like a sales pitch as that is minimal compared to the other changes....but you probably already know that.

[RBM]

Sorry about my other post about oil prices, I mistakenly thought we were talking about peak oil prices.


Being a licensed builder, I agree. They need to update the electrical system and windows, check/add attic insulation. Re-vamping the floor plan to capture sun energy sounds like a sales pitch as that is minimal compared to the other changes....but you probably already know that.

I'm learning ;-)

I'm 7 months graduated with an HVAC/R Associates in Lincoln NE and new-start building is non-existent. I framed a bit and did some frame to finish projects in the '70's, which is the experience I'm trying to build on and learning the 'Building Science' concepts as a way to add another tool in the toolbox.

I actually started to research RESNET and found that's another certification required in the US.

I get the impression, generally, climate change is a much larger motivator outside of the US, versus like in Wales.

[Visum]

I'm learning ;-)

I'm 7 months graduated with an HVAC/R Associates in Lincoln NE and new-start building is non-existent. I framed a bit and did some frame to finish projects in the '70's, which is the experience I'm trying to build on and learning the 'Building Science' concepts as a way to add another tool in the toolbox.

I actually started to research RESNET and found that's another certification required in the US.

I get the impression, generally, climate change is a much larger motivator outside of the US, versus like in Wales.

I have found that the climate change buzz is alive and well, even south of the equator. Save the earth, and glaciers. It's a valid concern IMO, but many have no idea what policy change will do to their economy, or even how to adequately assess their home situation. There is a lot of money to be made, and what really concerns me is that large financial institutions are pushing for bills to pass. Heaven knows what kind of financial investment vehicles they will create to catch the loose change.

[RBM]

There is a lot of money to be made, and what really concerns me is that large financial institutions are pushing for bills to pass. Heaven knows what kind of financial investment vehicles they will create to catch the loose change.

The major influence at the high levels of finance all seem to be focused on short term windows - quarter by quarter. I don't see that as conducive to a healthy exploration of problems and effective solutions.

[SuperBenjamin]

Being a Shell petroleum engineer, I say peak oil is a hoax by the government, we have plenty of oil for the next few generations and maybe beyond.....

[Hamburglar]

Yah okay, that doesn't change the fact, as stated by yourself, that Oil is running out.

Whether it is 3 generations, or 10 generations we will consume the oil, to a point that the supply will not be able to meet the demand...

I will not even bring in the ecological impacts of burning oil since it is not related to the post but those are important as well.

even if we create 10,000 mile per gallon cars, eventually the oil will run out. The problem with oil is that once you burn it, it is gone. thus it is a non-renewable resource. Unless of course, as a shell engineer you have developed a way to produce oil out of thin air?

[JonD]

Peak Oil theory hinges heavily on how oil runs out. Most peak oil literature I've read, assumes that demand for oil will grow exponentially as oil supply declines exponentially. This brings about socioeconomic devastation, political destabilization, etc.

But let's look at how oil is running out, right now. Recently, Alberta's tar sands have been developed for their oil. Decades before, when they knew there was oil there, it was deemed uneconomic to develop it. In short, all that was needed was time for the price of oil to be high enough to get it.

Within the last few years, shale oil has been able to be developed, due to technological breakthroughs. Oil, trapped in some types of rock, can now be harvested.

The decline of oil will certainly cause problems. It's that some who exploit this theory to fearmonger ignore the capacity for politicians to act properly in important situations. Every politician knows that sudden change is terrible. They would sooner stick a fork up their collective asses than let the bottom fall out. They will do what they can to ease the change from oil to alternatives, and if they can't, someone will be voted in who can.

[RBM]

JonD you point out, well, the nuance of the broader PO dialog.

To posters like SuperBenjamin, who seems to tread a line with his post, between ignorance and disingenuousness my reply is "I want $1/gal. gas and no shortages, now."

I'll be 56 years old in a few days and you point to the reality that speaks volumes to me: "it was deemed uneconomic to develop it."

Alternatives ? At what lifestyle ? I've posted several OP's to exactly that wobblly belief.

Here's what the bar alternatives for the status quo lifestyle:

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