Energy, finances and healthcare from an actuary's POV

[RBM]

A conversation with Gail-The-Actuary (To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.) by Dan Bednarz

Recently I interviewed Gail Tverberg, “Gail the Actuary,” a co-editor of The Oil Drum, who is an invaluable source of analysis and articulation of how peak oil is manifesting itself in the world economy and its financial institutions. We began with a macroeconomic perspective and then considered then consequences for healthcare.



This is my introduction of another author to this board. I suspect that since actuaries deal with empirics that it would appeal to INTJ's.

[reb]

this woman has a very solid background. the problem i see in her analysis and conclusions-availability, extraction, processing and offer of oil is 'not solid'. the geologists who forecast, estimate and locate oil reserves are much like the economists who have continually forecast a rising economy....sometimes wrong. of course, that's not the whole picture...belief in peak oil, in and of itself, causes a problem within attempted self sustaining economic systems. the leverage something like oil offers countries like saudi arabia is very likely beyond my comprehension, although i wish it weren't.

i have been harping for so long (off and on, m ostly on) about the population problem and the growth paradigm inherent in our society (maybe our world), i'm not going to harp. the kids can tear at this issue. they will have to live with it.

'nother site:

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[Hanfgeist]

We don't ever have to run out of hydrocarbons, the technology to synthesize them from carbon monoxide and hydrogen has been around since the 1930s (Fischer-Tropsch method) and the processes and catalysts have been greatly improved since then. It may soon be possible to get some of the feedstock chemicals from renewable resources like charcoal and water and it can also be made from stuff like animal fat, a very valuable resource, which people just throw into the garbage at the moment. Whether they will be able to produce enough hydrocarbons with these methods to satisfy the current demand is a big question but running out completely does'nt have to happen.......

You might also like to check out this site which explains how to prepare your community for a peak oil type shock so that you don't have to fight each other for food......

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[Pandemonium]

We don't ever have to run out of hydrocarbons, the technology to synthesize them from carbon monoxide and hydrogen has been around since the 1930s (Fischer-Tropsch method) and the processes and catalysts have been greatly improved since then. It may soon be possible to get some of the feedstock chemicals from renewable resources like charcoal and water and it can also be made from stuff like animal fat, a very valuable resource, which people just throw into the garbage at the moment. Whether they will be able to produce enough hydrocarbons with these methods to satisfy the current demand is a big question but running out completely does'nt have to happen.......

There are much easier methods of generating energy such as Geothermal, Solar Photovoltic, Solar Thermal, Wind, Tidal, Wave etc. And we have brilliant technologies of storing energy such as Lithium Ion Batteries and in Hydrogen and Oxygen through the electrolysis of water. Reproducing hydrocarbons for energy capacity is illogical when we can produce vast amounts of energy from renewable sources. Oil peaking will occur it is just a question of when.

It would be logical to invest in renewable energy production now than wait until oil and other finite resources run out.

[Hanfgeist]

There are much easier methods of generating energy such as Geothermal, Solar Photovoltic, Solar Thermal, Wind, Tidal, Wave etc. And we have brilliant technologies of storing energy such as Lithium Ion Batteries and in Hydrogen and Oxygen through the electrolysis of water. Reproducing hydrocarbons for energy capacity is illogical when we can produce vast amounts of energy from renewable sources. Oil peaking will occur it is just a question of when.

It would be logical to invest in renewable energy production now than wait until oil and other finite resources run out.

True, but hydrocarbons give you the most bang for your buck which is why they are used for transportation fuels and why not synthesize them from renewable sources? I think the oil crunch may be allowed to happen because the powers that be and the people who fund them are making vast sums of cash from fossil fuels and they are going to keep on selling them and stopping competition from other energy sources, no matter what, to save their cash cow and palatial lifestyles......

[Pandemonium]

True, but hydrocarbons give you the most bang for your buck which is why they are used for transportation fuels and why not synthesize them from renewable sources? I think the oil crunch may be allowed to happen because the powers that be and the people who fund them are making vast sums of cash from fossil fuels and they are going to keep on selling them and stopping competition from other energy sources, no matter what, to save their cash cow and palatial lifestyles......

The production of ethanol from corn has caused a number of problems regarding the increasing costs of basic food and the clearing of land to produce corn. Generating hydrocarbons from waste is a more feasible option. Many landfills here in Australia collect methane generated from the break down of waste and use the fuel source to generate electricity.

[RBM]

this woman has a very solid background. the problem i see in her analysis and conclusions-availability, extraction, processing and offer of oil is 'not solid'. the geologists who forecast, estimate and locate oil reserves are much like the economists who have continually forecast a rising economy....sometimes wrong. of course, that's not the whole picture...belief in peak oil, in and of itself, causes a problem within attempted self sustaining economic systems. the leverage something like oil offers countries like saudi arabia is very likely beyond my comprehension, although i wish it weren't.

i have been harping for so long (off and on, m ostly on) about the population problem and the growth paradigm inherent in our society (maybe our world), i'm not going to harp. the kids can tear at this issue. they will have to live with it.

'nother site:

To view links or images in this forum your post count must be 2 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

'not solid':
Of course not - such data in Saudia Arabia's National Security Secret. How solid do you need it that an upside down mortgage and maxed CC and gas guzzling SUV might be painful ?

I define Peak Oil from the geologic perspective of production and while that isn't concrete it's not exactly fuzzy either.

The kids ... hehe, yeah harping is not worth it. I throw it out there and lose no sleep if it doesn't stick.

In any case if one can connect the dots, one can make smarter choices.

[eternaltriangle]

The production of ethanol from corn has caused a number of problems regarding the increasing costs of basic food and the clearing of land to produce corn. Generating hydrocarbons from waste is a more feasible option. Many landfills here in Australia collect methane generated from the break down of waste and use the fuel source to generate electricity.

Then there is also the land use issue (what are you clearing to grow sugar-cane or corn for ethanol). The top article on this is "Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt" in Science.

Abstract:
"Increasing energy use, climate change, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels make switching to low-carbon fuels a high priority. Biofuels are a potential low-carbon energy source, but whether biofuels offer carbon savings depends on how they are produced. Converting rainforests, peatlands, savannas, or grasslands to produce food crop–based biofuels in Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the United States creates a "biofuel carbon debt" by releasing 17 to 420 times more CO2 than the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions that these biofuels would provide by displacing fossil fuels. In contrast, biofuels made from waste biomass or from biomass grown on degraded and abandoned agricultural lands planted with perennials incur little or no carbon debt and can offer immediate and sustained GHG advantages."

[LaoTzu]

“The fiscal crisis is THE expected outcome of peak oil… We’ve added more and more debt [through the years] so we need more and more growth to support it; but, in fact, with oil resources constrained, and water resources constrained –and you can think of other constrained resources … we really can’t grow that way anymore… Without growth people … businesses, government can’t pay back their debt; and so we’re running into this massive unwind of debt rippling through the world economy –and we’re not anywhere near through it.”


Interesting.... I hadn't thought of this crisis as a result of peak oil; but it bears further study. I have wondered for a few months now if what we are now seeing economically had a beginning in the high price of fuels for the last couple of years. The sheer craziness of it all points to some cataclysmic shift in the global economic system, and peak oil could surely cause that.

Estimated reserves of oil globally are somewhere between 2 and 4 Trillion barrels. At our PRESENT rate of consumption that leaves around 68-136 years of oil (and I lean towards 2Trillion left). That doesn't include growth, which tends to double (our consumption) at least once a decade (if not more).

I think pollution is the least of our worries in regards to oil. There isn't going to be enough left to 'destroy the planet' with :P

[eternaltriangle]

I don't really buy the peak oil argument - like many theories it involves a current trend extended out through time. If oil does become scarce, prices will go up, and more people will switch to alternate sources of energy - nuclear, coal, etc (and producing from shale oil or in the arctic will become production efficient). We already have hybrid cars, while electric cars like the Chevy Volt are on the horizon (PS: the Chevy Volt is only good for the environment if we generate electricity in an eco-friendly way, but it does get around a reliance on oil to fuel cars).

Nuclear power in particular can tide us over till renewables become cost-efficient. Technology is a big factor too - we can get a lot more out of a given amount of any kind of fuel source than we used to. Nuclear reactor capacity, for instance, increased 400% since the late 70's. We could theoretically construct breeder reactors that could extend our supply of materials.

Genetic engineering can help increase bio-diesel crop yields, both reducing land use costs and increasing output enough to overcome the shortfall in oil. Indeed, this is going to be positive for energy prices in the long-run. Oil refining technology offers few opportunities for technical improvement, relative to other more productive alternatives, where fewer research dollars have flowed.

The higher oil prices get, the greater the financial opportunity in inventing the next big fuel source - there are going to be a lot of research dollars thrown that way over the next 50 years.

I don't see the link between this financial crisis and peak oil (if impending energy shortages drove the recession, then the recession would have been reversed when energy prices collapsed). However, I do see a lot of countries using the recession as a time to retool their economies - "green plans" have been part of the stimulus in almost every country. So as much as I would love to be a pessimist, I'm pretty hopeful for the future on that front.

[RBM]

I don't really buy the peak oil argument - like many theories it involves a current trend extended out through time. .

I'm not surprised given that statement. The 'peak oil argument' is that oil is finite. You don't believe that ?

[Hanfgeist]

I'm not surprised given that statement. The 'peak oil argument' is that oil is finite. You don't believe that ?

Oil from fossil fuels is finite but it is possible to make as much synthetic hydrocarbons as needed if the will to do so and the demand is there, problem is that they might not have the replacement fuel production systems and alternative energy sources in place before the fossil stuff runs out which is when the cow chips will hit the windmill......

[eternaltriangle]

I'm not surprised given that statement. The 'peak oil argument' is that oil is finite. You don't believe that ?

There is a whole peak oil movement, the posits substantial and negative implications on the near horizon as a result of our running out of oil. Oil is more or less finite, but the implications of its scarcity have been overblown.

[RBM]

There is a whole peak oil movement, the posits substantial and negative implications on the near horizon as a result of our running out of oil. Oil is more or less finite, but the implications of its scarcity have been overblown.

I'd guess you didn't even read Gail's site, eh ?





RBM added to this post, 2 minutes and 33 seconds later...

Oil from fossil fuels is finite but it is possible to make as much synthetic hydrocarbons as needed if the will to do so and the demand is there, problem is that they might not have the replacement fuel production systems and alternative energy sources in place before the fossil stuff runs out which is when the cow chips will hit the windmill......

Commercial feasibility doesn't exist now .... ever ? I'm not betting on it.

[Hanfgeist]

Commercial feasibility doesn't exist now .... ever ? I'm not betting on it.


The Germans made hundreds of thousands of tons of synthetic fuels and oils during the war years and the south Africans during the period when they were embargoed, I think their SASOL plant is still in operation there and when 'peak oil' makes the prices skyrocket, synthetic fuels will start to become commercially feasible and competitive.

[RBM]

The Germans made hundreds of thousands of tons of synthetic fuels and oils during the war years and the south Africans during the period when they were embargoed, I think their SASOL plant is still in operation there and when 'peak oil' makes the prices skyrocket, synthetic fuels will start to become commercially feasible and competitive.

Well aware of the SASOL effort. I don't have the expertise to argue why you conclusion is wrong, but IIRC it's about a resource constrained environment that typical economic dynamics change.